Inflation Still Percolating In US Services Sector

Activity in the US services sector reaccelerated in August, according to this week’s only top-tier data release out of the world’s largest economy.

Although a resilient consumer who continues to engage with the vast services industry is consistent with the “no recession” narrative, there’s a fine line between “no recession” (good news) and “no landing” (bad news to the extent it calls for a more hawkish Fed).

At 54.5, the headline ISM services print topped every estimate from nearly five-dozen economists. The range was 51.1 to 53.9.

By contrast, the final read on S&P Global’s services gauge for August was a downwardly-revised 50.5.

I don’t recommend trying to reconcile the two surveys. They diverge frequently. Markets tend to trade the flash reads on S&P Global’s indexes in lieu of the ISM reports, which are delivered a week or more later. ISM always takes precedence over the final S&P Global prints in the eyes of traders.

S&P Global’s Chris Williamson described “a near-stalling of business activity” and a “deteriorating picture in the service sector.” That wasn’t the message from the ISM report, which found the new orders gauge rising to 57.5 and, notably, the employment index jumping to 54.7, a 21-month high. S&P Global’s survey suggested hiring was the slowest in nearly a year.

“There has been an increase in the rate of growth for the services sector, reflected by increases in all four subindexes and faster supplier deliveries,” ISM’s Anthony Nieves said, adding that although sentiment among panelists “varies by industry,” respondents mostly feel good about their own businesses and the economy more generally.

In a disconcerting development for the Fed, ISM’s prices paid gauge for the services sector rose to 58.9. That was the highest since April.

Do note: The uptick on the services price index comes alongside the largest increase on the factory prices gauge since February. Crude is at YTD highs, pointing to more pressure on the manufacturing side.

If inflation is supposed to moderate back to target on a sustainable basis, the Fed really needs to see cooler demand for services. Otherwise, firms will continue to push the issue on prices given that labor is an enormous part of their cost structure.

S&P Global’s Williamson captured that dynamic well. “Persistent wage growth is being accompanied by renewed upward pressure on energy, fuel and transport costs, as well as some broader firming of materials prices, driving cost growth higher,” he said Wednesday. “Competitive forces have kept a lid on selling price inflation, but the rate of increase of service sector charges remains elevated to the extent that consumer price inflation is likely to remain stubbornly above the Fed’s target in the coming months. ”


 

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