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Featured

Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Hedge Fund ‘Crowding’ Hits Record Amid Mega-Cap Rally

November 22, 2023November 22, 2023

Earlier this week, in one of the dailies, I included a chart depicting record hedge

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Bears, Bulls And The 1950s Parallel

November 22, 2023November 24, 2023

The profit recession for corporate America ended in Q3. EPS growth was around 4% last

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2 Comments on Bears, Bulls And The 1950s Parallel

The Term Premium Is Negative Again

November 22, 2023November 23, 2023

It’s official. Or as official as it can be considering we’re talking about something that’s

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3 Comments on The Term Premium Is Negative Again

Hostages, Prisoners And Poets

November 22, 2023December 5, 2023

“He was interrogated and he was actually beaten.” That’s a quote from a family friend

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16 Comments on Hostages, Prisoners And Poets

Jobless Claims Continue To Vex Recession Calls

November 22, 2023November 23, 2023

Jobless claims in the US steadfastly refuse to cooperate with, let alone corroborate, recession narratives.

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Popular Strategist Reveals Top 10 Trades For 2024

November 21, 2023

On Tuesday, BofA’s Savita Subramanian made the case for S&P 5,000 in 2024. Suffice to say

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1 Comment on Popular Strategist Reveals Top 10 Trades For 2024

Nvidia Says A.I. Revolution Proceeding Apace

November 21, 2023November 22, 2023

I’d say “not surprisingly,” but I guess that doesn’t quite work given that beats versus

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6 Comments on Nvidia Says A.I. Revolution Proceeding Apace

Fed Minutes Repeat Familiar Talking Points

November 21, 2023November 22, 2023

“There has been surprisingly little reaction thus far.” So said one observer following the release

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2 Comments on Fed Minutes Repeat Familiar Talking Points

Investors Say No Thanks To TIPS

November 21, 2023

The Treasury auction drama continued on Tuesday with a tailing 10-year TIPS sale. I should

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2 Comments on Investors Say No Thanks To TIPS

Higher Rates ‘Single Best Development’ In 20 Years: Vanguard

November 21, 2023December 5, 2023

“Higher interest rates are here to stay.” So declared Vanguard, staid bastion of relative sanity

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3 Comments on Higher Rates ‘Single Best Development’ In 20 Years: Vanguard

The Homes Are As Scarce As They Are Expensive

November 21, 2023November 21, 2023

Surprise! Existing US home sales fell again in October, data released on Tuesday showed. The

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7 Comments on The Homes Are As Scarce As They Are Expensive

BofA’s Subramanian Sees S&P 5,000 In 2024

November 21, 2023November 22, 2023

5,000. And a new record high. That’s what BofA’s Savita Subramanian sees for the S&P

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1 Comment on BofA’s Subramanian Sees S&P 5,000 In 2024

Here’s How Fed Balance Sheet Runoff Ends

November 20, 2023November 24, 2023

Last week, I noted that ongoing drain from the Fed’s RRP facility telegraphed the end

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1 Comment on Here’s How Fed Balance Sheet Runoff Ends

The S&P, The Economy And Joe Biden’s 2024 Odds

November 20, 2023November 24, 2023

It’ll be all about sequencing for the S&P next year. That was one message from

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2 Comments on The S&P, The Economy And Joe Biden’s 2024 Odds

Maybe They Want The Bonds After All

November 20, 2023November 24, 2023

Headed into this week, there was some consternation that Monday’s 20-year sale would evidence the

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Can Argentina Really Dollarize?

November 20, 2023November 24, 2023

In the wake of Javier Milei’s landmark election in Argentina, focus has turned to his

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Milei Or Melee?

November 20, 2023December 5, 2023

Let’s be upfront about one thing: Brash politicians peddling quick fixes to intractable domestic problems,

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11 Comments on Milei Or Melee?

Dollars And Doom

November 20, 2023November 21, 2023

This is a good time for a reminder: The world’s a much friendlier place when

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Biden Risks Moral Culpability For Gaza’s Child ‘Graveyard’

November 19, 2023December 5, 2023

Joe Biden, in a weekend op-ed for The Washington Post, laid out The White House’s

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4 Comments on Biden Risks Moral Culpability For Gaza’s Child ‘Graveyard’

Give Thanks

November 19, 2023December 5, 2023

It’s a short trading week in the US, where Americans will gather with family members

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9 Comments on Give Thanks

The New Bull Case: Soft Landing Plus Insurance Cuts

November 18, 2023November 24, 2023

In the latest edition of the Weekly, I suggested the unofficial consensus is still that

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1 Comment on The New Bull Case: Soft Landing Plus Insurance Cuts

$26 Billion Pours Into US Stock Funds Amid Sentiment Shift

November 17, 2023November 24, 2023

They were buying stocks over the last week. Equity sentiment inflected for the better this

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2 Comments on $26 Billion Pours Into US Stock Funds Amid Sentiment Shift

Nobody Wants The Bonds!

November 17, 2023November 20, 2023

Nobody wants the bonds! That’s sarcasm. It’s fair to say the oversupply panic that typified

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The ‘Most Unexpected’ Macro Outcome Of 2024

November 17, 2023November 24, 2023

In the latest installment of his popular weekly “Flow Show” series, BofA’s Michael Hartnett leveraged

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9 Comments on The ‘Most Unexpected’ Macro Outcome Of 2024

New Construction Defies Dour Builder Sentiment In Distorted US Housing Market

November 17, 2023November 18, 2023

New construction bucked the dour trend in homebuilder sentiment to post a surprise monthly gain

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1 Comment on New Construction Defies Dour Builder Sentiment In Distorted US Housing Market

Money Fund AUM Hits Another Record. RRP Drain Starts Clock On QT End

November 16, 2023November 24, 2023

Money market fund assets scaled yet another new peak in the week to November 15,

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5 Comments on Money Fund AUM Hits Another Record. RRP Drain Starts Clock On QT End

Wall Street’s Most Famous Bear Explains How Stocks Avoided The Worst

November 16, 2023November 24, 2023

Contracting liquidity was supposed to pressure US equities during the dog days of summer and

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1 Comment on Wall Street’s Most Famous Bear Explains How Stocks Avoided The Worst

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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  • WMD on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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