Somewhere, Xi Jinping donned his famous smirk.

Taiwan chose Lai Ching-te for president on Saturday, handing the Democratic Progressive Party a third term in power. Voter turnout was 70%.

Lai, who’s been vice president since 2020, will take the reins from Tsai Ing-wen. She’s stepping aside due to term limits, which is to say she’s respecting the kind of democratic checks that don’t exist on the Mainland. (I should note that Tsai resigned as party chief late in 2022 after local election losses. Lai ran uncontested for party chair, and thus succeeded Tsai at the helm from 2023.)

Lai’s victory on Saturday was a stinging rebuke to the Party (capital “P”) in Beijing. In November, the office responsible for cross-Strait affairs (and here’s hoping that mandate isn’t ultimately transferred to the PLA) called Lai a “troublemaker.” “In order to get more votes [he] tries to hide the fact that, as a supporter of Taiwan independence, he is essentially [an] instigator of war,” a Party functionary said.

Xi continues to insist that reunification is a historical inevitability — written in the stars, so to speak. “Compatriots on both sides of the Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” he declared, in his New Year’s address.

Last month, Xi’s Taiwan affairs bureau stepped up the rhetoric, calling Lai an incurable “destroyer of peace” who “cannot escape” culpability for his role in a “criminal” conspiracy to undermine cross-Strait relations. (Tell us how you really feel.)

In short, Lai’s a separatist as far as Beijing’s concerned, and that characterization isn’t wrong exactly. As a younger man, Lai was an advocate for independence, and still is, just not via a formal declaration, which he says isn’t necessary.

The Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih, who pledged to smooth things over with Beijing, ostensibly in the interest of avoiding a war, congratulated Lai. He also told his supporters he was sorry for losing.

Lai voters cited the preservation of democracy. Hou voters (or some of them, anyway) seemed more concerned with deescalation than with ingratiating the island to Xi. Lai will follow Tsai’s blueprint when it comes to foreign policy — he won’t court war, but he’ll work to deepen the island’s relationship with Washington.

Beijing will surely criticize Saturday’s election results as a perilous step down the road to conflict. As a reminder that no one needs: Xi has never ruled out force in discussing reunification. He’d rather Taiwan go peacefully, but if not… well, if something’s inevitable it’s inevitable, he’d say.

In an October interview with Japanese media, Lai said Taiwan is “in fact already sovereign and independent.” “If it is not sovereign and independent, how can there be a presidential election?” he asked, rhetorically. “Therefore, there is no need to declare Taiwan’s independence again.”