Houthis Get Their Wish: US, UK Pound Yemen With Airstrikes
For weeks, the Houthi leadership in Yemen insisted the group was prepared for a head-to-head confrontation with the US military. Now, they have it.
The US and the UK targeted at least a dozen Houthi sites in retaliation for the group's ongoing mischief in the Red Sea. Explosions were heard in Sanaa and the port city of Hodieda, which the Houthis control.
The coordinated strikes reportedly involved Tomahawk missiles and warplanes, which targeted the group's air defenses, arms depots and logisti
Hopefully, our Naval troops in Bahrain are ready for whatever might be about to happen in the Middle East.
hopefully this escalation of direct US+ involvement, and accompanying risks to the ME stationed servicemen and women, will embolden Biden+ to escalate the pressure on Netanyahu to cease the indiscriminate slaughter of the Palestinians…
Our troops are seriously at risk.
Hopefully, the commander of the US military (Biden) has a plan because I fear that Iran is going to get very aggressive during the next 12 months- during which time the Iranians know that Biden will still be in office.
Unfortunately, the exchange- approved by Biden- of $6B plus Iranians that were being held in the US in exchange for 5/6 American hostages that were being held by Iran is not looking like a smart decision.
Realistically there’s not a lot Iran can do. Hezbollah could escalate until they draw Israel in and maybe they can fight the IDF to a standstill again, but that comes with considerable risk, including — for example — a drone strike that kills Nasrallah. The problem is that when Tehran gets backed into a corner (e.g., when Trump assassinated Soleimani) they can’t retaliate commensurately without risking something existential for the regime. And make no mistake: Nothing’s more important to the regime than staying in power. (And please, Iran was just as aggressive during the Trump years. In fact, if you make a list of incidents, you could pretty easily argue that Iran was more aggressive during the Trump years, if you don’t count 10/7 in Israel).
The point is, I really don’t think Tehran wants to push the envelope so much that they risk getting embarrassed again like they were on January 3, 2020. What happens, for example, if Esmail Qaani and Nasrallah end up in the same room together somewhere in Damascus or Beirut and then suddenly an Israel drone turns them both to dust? What does Iran do then? Any response that’d count as “commensurate” (e.g., a massive missile strike on Tel Aviv) would risk a US ground invasion. Who’s gonna help them in that situation? Russia? They’re busy. China? No. Could the US win such a war? In the long-term, probably not. In the short-term, yes, as surely as night follows day. The lesson of Iraq was that the military-on-military part is a walkover. It’s everything that comes after that that’s hard.
Thanks for posting- this makes a lot of sense.
Nothing short of Iran wading directly into the fray is going to get much of a reaction from oil, I guess?
Why would Iran get involved directly?
They have Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah to do their dirty work, then Iran can claim “innocence”.
Kind of like China has North Korea.
Iran’s direct involvement with the three H’s is overt. Not hard to find reasons to strike Iranian assets related to Houthi support. Also probably not a good idea for Iran to seize the tanker.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/the-anti-ship-missile-arsenal-houthis-are-firing-into-the-red-sea
Info on Houthi missile capabilities. It seems that the coastal radars and spy ships that locate shipping would be useful targets, as the missiles’ own seekers are fairly short-range.
It’d be interesting to see what happens if we sunk those Iranian spy ships too…
How much longer before this spreads to the Strait of Hormuz?
Without this intervention, fighting would absolutely spread. It was a very measured reaction, apparently only 5 people died. By every indication it was a surgical strike (contrast images out of Gaza of civilian carnage).
Kudos to the Biden and Sunak administrations for taking action without putting boots on the ground