Victory? Inflation Target Comes Into View For Shell-Shocked ECB
Inflation is basically back to target in Europe. I can hear the jeers and protests
Bond Bonanza
I spent the better part of last month calling for a bond rally. Duration was
Druckenmiller Gets A Reminder: America ‘Isn’t A Corporation’
Last month, Stan Druckenmiller sat down for a fireside chat with Paul Tudor Jones at
The Waller Sea Change
It’s hard to overstate the significance of the apparent tone shift from the Fed regarding
In Rates: ‘Imminent And Enormous Short-Squeeze Risk’
“Simply put, this fattens the right-tail of the US economic soft landing scenario,” Nomura’s Charlie
GDP Revisions Skew Dovish Despite Hotter Headline
Given the momentum behind the bond rally and, now, the bull steepener, it was very
After $200 Million Bond Short Payday, Ackman Bets On Fed Cuts
Two months ago, I said Bill Ackman probably cared a lot more about the money
Unfazed Treasury Market Underscores Regime Shift
Treasurys were mostly unfazed early this week despite a mixed reception for the front-loaded supply
‘Increasingly Confident’
If the Fed’s concerned about their financial conditions reflexivity predicament, they aren’t showing it. Chris
Deep Thoughts On The American Consumer
A gauge of US consumer expectations still points to recession over the next 12 months.
US Home Prices Hit New Records In Late Summer
US home price gains accelerated in September, according to updates on two key national gauges
‘This Can’t Be What They Had In Mind’: Reflexivity On Parade
I’ve been on (and on) about the Fed’s financial conditions reflexivity problem. The dynamic is
Adventures In The Vol-Scape
During the three-month selloff in US equities from August to October, AUM growth for ETFs
Narrating The ‘Everything Ripper’
If you have even a passing interest in markets, macro and monetary policy (and if
CTAs: A ‘Tail’ Of Two Drawdowns
If you’re searching for the quintessential manifestation of the macro-policy about-face behind November’s “everything rally”
Black Holes And Red Pills
I generally eschew the temptation to editorialize around Elon Musk’s adventures in “red pill” Wonderland.
New Home Prices Plunge Most Ever
New home sales fell more than expected in the US last month, the first of
The $6 Trillion Question
“Cash” had a helluva year. Perhaps you’re aware. Every week, I editorialize around the latest
Will Higher Rates Ever Matter For Big Business Bottom Lines?
Here’s an idea: Equities have already priced in the drag from a higher cost of
Inflation Updates Offer Litmus Test For 2024 Rate Cut Bets
Inflation updates from both the US and Europe top the macro agenda in the new
The Peril Of Ukraine Fatalism
Mainstream commentary around the war in Ukraine comes across as increasingly (and perhaps unduly) fatalistic
How Long Before The Fed Faces Reserve Scarcity?
A few days ago, I mentioned that RRP drain had likely started the clock on
Long Cash!
Another week, another new record for money market fund assets. Money funds took in $29.12
Sentiment Shift Drives $50 Billion Flow Bonanza To US Stock Funds
US-focused equity ETFs and mutual funds scored another big inflow over the latest weekly reporting
Germany At Risk Of Two-Year Stagnation Amid Court Ruling, Debt Charade
Germany is in a tough spot. Data released on Friday confirmed the world’s fourth-largest economy
Wilders. In A Landslide
“They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people,” Donald Trump said
Interest Expense, Debt And A.I.: What Corporate America Is Talking About
Every quarter, once the verdict is in on earnings season, Goldman publishes an “S&P 500
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