If you were looking for more evidence to suggest the US economy and labor market remain resilient and therefore that wagers on a March rate cut from the Fed might be misplaced, jobless claims obliged.

Initial claims were just 187,000 in the week to January 13, Thursday’s updated showed. That was the fewest since September of 2022. Consensus expected 205,000.

Recall that the four-week moving average fell to 207,750 with last week’s release, the lowest since mid-October. Now it’s 203,250, the lowest in nearly a year.

Continuing claims fell to 1.806 million, well below estimates. Do note: The initial claims print is for an NFP survey week. So… well, you don’t need to be an economist to read those particular tea leaves.

The update underscored the message from Wednesday’s robust retail sales release (which found the control group quadrupling forecasts) and also Chris Waller’s messaging (which suggested the Fed isn’t in a hurry to cut rates).

Between Waller’s comments and the strong read on nominal consumption, front-end US yields rose sharply mid-week in a bear flattener accompanied by less aggressive pricing for the March FOMC meeting.

For now, rates have probably found an equilibrium — last week’s dovish overshoot was erased, and March is a coin toss. That’s “about right,” I suppose.