Half-Full Or Half-Empty?
There are a number of lenses through which one can view the ongoing equity rally
Fed Gets Good News On Good Friday
The American consumer was undeterred last month and price pressures were a bit less acute
Albert Edwards Has A New Bear Narrative
Albert Edwards has a bear narrative. More than one, actually. Albert’s collection of bear narratives
US Housing Thaw Belies Absurd Affordability Spiral
It’s nothing to write home about (get it?) but pending home sales in the US
Biden Gets A Break As US Consumer Sentiment Revised Sharply Higher
A marquee gauge of US consumer sentiment inflected meaningfully, and unexpectedly, for the better in
Another Bear Narrative Dies As GDI/GDP Gap Closes
The pace of US economic expansion during last year’s final quarter got a bump on
‘One Day Out Of The Blue’
As the book closed on a second consecutive stellar quarter for equities, the bear case
High Rollers
In “Will Fed Hikes Catch Up To Corporates After All?” I wondered if the much-discussed
Is Jerome Powell Ignoring His Own Models?
If you’re not exhausted with the neutral rate discussion by now, something’s wrong with you.
Will Fed Hikes Catch Up To Corporates After All?
When it comes to refi penalty and roll risk, it was always (and self-evidently) a
Quiescent Vol Conjures Ominous Parallel
Volatility’s topical in 2024. Specifically, the absence of it. There’s no real mystery as to
An Audience With The Emperor
The two-day China Development Forum ended on Monday, but a handful of US corporate luminaries
Why US Bond Yields Should Be Far Lower
Bond yields should be higher. It’s easy to make the case. I do it all
Up, Down Or Sideways?
Never before has global manufacturing activity loitered so long in what amounts to a neutral
Fed Went Record-Broke In 2023
The Fed’s broke. Maybe you heard. Or as broke as you can be when you’re
MAGA Merger
Nancy Pelosi once said of Donald Trump: “Everything he says is a projection. When he
American Consumer In Limbo Amid Macro, Political Ambiguity
American consumers are feeling ok about the current state of the US economy. They aren’t
5% Versus FOMO
Will there or won’t there be a rotation out of money market funds and into
A Milestone Abstention
On Monday, Washington sent an unequivocal message about America’s commitment to safeguarding innocents caught in
Drill It Up, I Say
A couple of days ago, over a french press (mine) and a Mich Ultra (his)
New US Home Sales Slip, Prices Fall Amid Signs Of Normalization
New home sales unexpectedly fell last month, the first of this week’s notable data out
Stop Me If You’ve Heard This Before
Markets, and particularly equities, built in “great expectations” over a five-month rally that found global
Corporate Bid Still Only Game In Town For US Equity Demand
Who’ll be the biggest buyer of US equities in 2024? If you said “Well corporations,
US Inflation Update To Show Stalled Progress In Holiday Week
It’s a holiday week in the US, but the schedule’s pretty full and includes an
Goldman: S&P Could Soar To 6,000 This Year. Or Dive To 4,500
The S&P hit Goldman’s year-end target last week. So, nine months early. The (very short)
Escape To Ukraine?
As with anything that happens inside Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the March 22 massacre at Crocus
In Moscow: Murder
On March 7, the US Embassy in Moscow issued a security alert. “The Embassy is
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