Earnings season’s all but over in the US with a notable exception: Nvidia.

So, reporting season’s over except for the only report that matters.

I’m only half-joking. If that. “Make or break” is an overused phrase. In the market-macro context, it’s a hopeless cliché. But if it’s applicable anywhere, it’s to Nvidia’s top-line and, even more so, to the company’s top-line guide.

Suffice to say it ain’t over ’til it’s over, to employ another cliché.

With that caveat, reporting season went well. Aggregate, index-level EPS rose 6% YoY, double the expected gain.

For what it’s worth, Q1 2024 marked the fifth consecutive quarter during which earnings growth beat estimates, and the eighth in nine. (I’ll be generous this weekend and not lampoon this for the charade it is on multiple levels.)

Notably, beating estimates didn’t translate into outperformance. In fact, stocks that beat lagged the broader market. Instead, it was all about the outlook. Companies which lifted guidance outperformed, Goldman’s David Kostin noted.

Not surprisingly, some of the best results came from the “Magnificent 7.” Overall, the group (ex-Nvidia) grew profits by 48% YoY on 14% revenue growth and more than 520bps of margin expansion.

And yet, Kostin said it’s time to jettison the group’s nickname. “The sobriquet ‘Magnificent 7’ needs to be retired,” he wrote, pointing to the extraordinary dispersion on the top-line illustrated below.

Long story short, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon all reported double-digit revenue growth and have seen their shares rewarded this year.

Unless something’s gone horribly wrong in recent months (it hasn’t), Nvidia will report triple-digit sales growth.

Apple and Tesla, on the other hand, reported sales declines in Q1, even as investors were inclined to view both companies’ results as better than feared.

Tesla, Kostin dryly remarked, “now ranks as the 12th largest stock in the S&P.”