“I’m not saying they’re probable, and I’m not sure that my assessment is right. I’m just saying that it seems to me that the odds have increased relative to where they were, and I am just sharing the thinking that leads me to that conclusion.”
“At the same time, I can’t help but wonder if the trade war is part of a bigger impending conflict.”
“If on the other hand we see an escalating series of tit for tats, then we should worry.”
“We will probably never know, but I think it’s an interesting exercise to speculate on the reasons for the massive bet.”
“Let’s start by putting what’s happening within the context of the classic short-term debt/business cycle.”
“There had been a lot of complacency built up in markets over a long time”…
Ok, well on Wednesday, Dalio was kind enough to speak to Bloomberg whose correspondents are also in Switzerland and now, he’s calling for “the largest bear market in bonds that we have seen since 1980 to 1981.”
Listen, Ray Dalio has a set of “principles” ok?
“… won’t have any notable effect on our biggest economic, social, and political issue, which is the conditions of the bottom 60% and the growing disparity with the top 40%.”
“While we have talked a lot about the effects of growing wealth and opportunity disparities in America, we haven’t talked enough about”…
“Tightenings become progressively more concerning because as you move along they’re more and more difficult to get perfect. As we’re progressing, we’re entering a period of greater risk in the nature of the market.”
“…looking at average statistics could lead the Federal Reserve to judge the economy for the average man to be healthier than it really is and to misgauge the most important things that are going on with the economy, labor markets, inflation, capital formation, and productivity, rather than if the Fed were to use more granular statistics. That could lead the Fed to run an inappropriate monetary policy.”
“Bridgewater is a secretive and eccentric firm and I let my suspicions of that get in the way of our ordinarily comprehensive due diligence.”
“They are not investing. Yet here he is, laying it all out to the world again – necessarily doing less of his day job than he would otherwise do.”
Again, this isn’t about whether you like Gary Cohn or whether you think he’s a good choice for the Fed. This is about uncertainty in markets and the extent to which Donald Trump’s ineptitude is setting the stage for all manner of volatility down the road.