Ray Dalio is traveling around, “principles” in tow, and naturally, he’s in Davos this week.
On Tuesday, Dalio told CNBC that anyone holding cash was going to “feel pretty stupid” going forward, as everyone piles into the rally in order to ride the late cycle dynamic that Ray says will ultimately lead to a “blow-off” top.
“We are in this Goldilocks period right now. Inflation isn’t a problem. Growth is good, everything is pretty good with a big jolt of stimulation coming from changes in tax laws,” he said, speaking to CNBC against a backdrop of snow-laden conifers.”There is a lot of cash on the sidelines. … We’re going to be inundated with cash,” he added.
Ok, well on Wednesday, Dalio was kind enough to speak to Bloomberg whose correspondents are also in Switzerland and now, he’s calling for “the largest bear market in bonds that we have seen since 1980 to 1981.”
The problem, Dalio says, is that as the cycle progresses, the “operating rate” (a highly technical term) is going to get too high to be palatable for central banks, who will then put the brakes on.
Think of demand and capacity and various other factors as “like, driving behind a truck”, Ray advises, before continuing that “if you’re driving at 70mph, that’s fine” until you “get close” to the back of a slow-moving tractor-trailer at which point obviously you need to slam on the fucking brakes otherwise you’ll end up lodged in the ass-end of a semi truck.
About four minutes later (so, at the ~5:00 time stamp) he gets to the bond bear market bit. Here’s Ray (and more snow-laden conifers):
As you can see, Ray thinks “we’re in it” in terms of the bond bear market. Asked when we entered it, Dalio says he can’t say because it depends on “how you define a bear market”.
Got that? If not, watch it a second time so you can not get it again.
Anyway, 10Y yields are up after those comments and also after a $400k/DV01 block trade that pushed yields up to session highs above 2.64%: