“Perhaps it’s emblematic of the times: Central-bank watching is passé, while handicapping political risk is en vogue.”
Category: populism
Topless Protester To Le Pen: “Bitch We Ain’t Buyin’ It”
“Fake feminist!”
“Frexit”: Bank Runs, Deposit Blocks, Capital Controls. Any Questions?
“We have some experience in this domain: the example of Greece in the summer of 2015. That is not a happy precedent.”
As French Election Risk Plunges, One Heisenberg Reader Called It
Wax on, wax off. Risk on, risk off. I said it on Sunday: this week
Dear Sterling: It Would Be Best If You Just Accepted Your Fate
Now days, the best way forward for the currency that Deutsche Bank suggested may soon become “irrelevant” may be for lawmakers to simply roll over and choose the path of least resistance.
“Le” Screwed: Markets Nervous Ahead Of Fed Minutes As Bookies Put Le Pen’s Chances Even With Rivals
“Good morning.” And also: “I told you so.” This whole idea that because Marine Le
Crazy Vs. Crazy: Are Things Really More “Uncertain” In Europe Than They Are In The US?
How can a market “take into consideration all potential future events”? Obviously it can’t. That’s absurd. That said, stocks should be expected to discount what we might call “known unknowns.” That is, events that we know are likely to cause turbulence but that also admit of some indeterminacy regarding outcomes. Things that would fall into that category include the French elections and US tax reform.
Chart Check: Politics At Work
This is what happens when political risk trumps economic data…
“Run-For-Your-Life Affair” Continues In France, Fed’s Mester Hints At Hikes, US Vacations
“This weekend was an all-out, run-for-your-life affair.” That’s from Yves-Marie Cann, head of political studies at
Behold: A Sad, Sad Spectacle
That, right there, is why this is all so f*cking sad.
“JP Merlin” Returns: Quant Wizard Kolanovic Weighs In On Volatility, Geopolitics, And The Fed
He doesn’t have a long, white beard. He doesn’t wear a robe or a pointy
Thinking Globally In A World Gone Mad
One of the themes I harp on quite a lot in these pages is the
Chart Check (“Up, Up And Away”)
“Le Pen is mightier than le sword”…
“Has The Whole World Gone Crazy?!”
“Has the whole world gone crazy?! Am I the only one around here who gives a sh*t about the rules?!”
The Week That Was: “The Hardest Thing To Do Is Justify Hedging”
Well, it’s been one hell of a week. We started on a sugar high thanks
Chart Of The Day (“C’est La Vie”)
It may not look very dramatic, but looks can be deceiving. It’s all about France
A French Kiss Leaves Global Risk Queasy On Friday
If you were looking for clarity with regard to President Donald Trump’s policies or for any kind
“What Are You Paying For?!” One Bank Asks Whether French CDS Is Worthless
What protection are you paying for? Marine Le Pen’s proposal to take France out of the euro is once again raising questions about whether CDS will “do what it says on the tinâ€. As on previous occasions, we fear the answer is “not necessarilyâ€
Holy Sh*t Chart Of The Day
This may be “familiar behavior for the credit market”, but I can’t help but flag this as a pretty alarming indicator regarding the credit risk surrounding the upcoming French elections.
“Market Crash” Places Distant 3rd To Populism In Bank Risk Survey
Once again I say: “Thanks populism”…
One Trader Warns On Market Myopia: “I’ll Make The Money, You Manage The Risk”
Ok, it’s just getting comical now. Everyone is saying what I’ve been saying for months
“Genuinely Scary Moments Are Ahead,” One Trader Warns
“Theoretically, Europe is set to avoid each of this year’s political pitfalls — but the scares will be genuine. The euro will continue to slide in line with the rising long- term risk-premium around the region, while the bond markets flare-ups will be acute ahead of specific dates.”
Goldman: Trump Threatens Europe With Strongman “Bilateral World Order”
So you know, the percentage of the European population that’s still sane (and that’s an ever dwindling number apparently) would have really appreciated it if Trump would have just been satisfied with the damage he’s already done rather than piling it on by dispatching Peter Navarro to weigh in on the legitimacy of the common currency.
Poetic Justice? Europe “Celebrates” 25 Years Of Integration With Descent Into Chaos
Proponents of the nationalistic fervor currently spreading across Europe will likely find some poetic justice in the fact that the dissolution of the EU could ultimately unfold just as the bloc celebrates a milestone in time.
I Like My Term Structures Kinky
I’ve talked quite a bit about how the US equity market is grossly mispricing political
Tragic Irony: How Trump And Le Pen Perpetuate Radical Islam’s Apocalyptic World View
One of the most tragically ironic things about populism anno 2017 is the extent to which it reflects the very same radicalism its adherents claim to be fighting against.
The French Connection
With French election risk front and center, and having spent what is probably an inordinate
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