There are a laundry list of reasons to cast a wary eye at the rate
Category: Markets
Goldman’s ‘Most Out-Of-Consensus Call’ For 2023
Goldman’s most out-of-consensus call for 2023 is arguably their most important. Generally speaking, economists and
US Housing Market Enters 2023 As Bubble-Puzzle
Home sales in the US either tumbled the most on record last month or ran
Visualizing Macro History
Anyone with even a passing interest in markets can make a list of 2022’s “top”
Existential Questions For 2023
As the curtain closes on 2022, existential questions abound. Is the world headed for a
Stock Funds See Largest Exodus On Record
Barring a Christmas miracle, 2022 will be the worst year for US equities since 2008.
Ghost Of Christmas Past
This time four years ago, Donald Trump was busy berating Jerome Powell’s golf game on
Hot Data And Tepper’s ‘Short’ Call
“Stocks slump as bearish Tepper amplifies hot data,” one Thursday headline said. I suppose this
No Recession Could Be Bad News For Stocks, Bonds In 2023
One big risk in 2023 is that a hard landing doesn’t happen. That’s counterintuitive and
After The Fall: How To Regulate Crypto After $2 Trillion Collapse
It’s been a bad year for crypto, to borrow Sam Bankman-Fried‘s deliberately understated description of
Why Is The VIX So Low?
At regular intervals this year, sophisticated market participants have gone to extraordinary lengths to explain
Markets Ponder The Unthinkable After BoJ Shock
“Symbolically, this is an important step,” SocGen’s Kit Juckes wrote Tuesday. He was referring to
Surprise! Bank Of Japan Stuns Markets With Policy Tweak
The Bank of Japan finally blinked. At its last meeting of the year, the lone
Vox Populi
Much as I’d like to, I can’t ignore the elephant in the room on Monday.
Read Elizabeth Warren’s Letter To Tesla’s Board
On Monday morning, while documenting the latest and most dramatic twist in the ongoing soap
Harley Bassman’s Top Trades For 2023
I’ve offered the snark that “life is transitory,” which, while true, isn’t helpful. A cohort
Mechanics Of The Post-FOMC Bear
The post-FOMC trade (which I typically define as the day of the decision and the
The Christmas CPI Party That Wasn’t
Regardless of how things turned out on Wall Street Friday, risk sentiment was plainly on
Treacherous Vibes
The specter of ongoing rate hikes set against decelerating economic activity and persistent inflation isn’t
McElligott ‘Feels Pretty Emphatic’ About This Fed Take
The word “shock” was bandied about on Thursday to describe the Fed’s new dot plot,
‘Owl’ Lagarde Shows Talons As ECB Language Turns Aggressive
The ECB might’ve just become the most hawkish developed market central bank, an unfamiliar role
Hiking Into The Stagflationary Abyss
A divided Bank of England raised rates for a ninth consecutive meeting on Thursday, closing
Unfinished Business
The Fed wants “substantially more evidence” that inflation is on a sustainable path lower. That
When Doves Try
As expected, the Fed raised rates by 50bps on Wednesday, capping a tumultuous year defined
China Reopening: What Could Go Wrong?
The Chinese government — or, more aptly, “the Xi Jinping regime” — postponed the most
Howard Marks Sees ‘Sea Change’
During the pandemic, I stopped covering Howard Marks’s memos. For a time, I even stopped
Bond Bulls Fashionable Again. BlackRock Isn’t Buying It
Notwithstanding the recent rally that found 10-year US yields below 3.5% on Tuesday following another
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