‘Abundant, Wide’ Market Dislocations ‘Unlikely To Disappear’: Kocic

‘Abundant, Wide’ Market Dislocations ‘Unlikely To Disappear’: Kocic

These are unprecedented times. I'm immediately compelled to roll out two caveats that frustrate some readers. All times are "unprecedented," by definition. Just like every day is "history," by definition. Asinine? Maybe. But grandiose declarations become nebulous clichés through overuse. At that point, they're no good to us. They're not available when we need them. And make no mistake, we need the "unprecedented times" and "we're witnessing history" declarations in 2022. This isn't a drill. T
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4 thoughts on “‘Abundant, Wide’ Market Dislocations ‘Unlikely To Disappear’: Kocic

  1. “One size fits all” won’t work- said another way- I do not believe that the Fed can’t fix inflation on their own (without causing additional problems). Various groups within humanity need to work together to solve some of the numerous problems we are currently dealing with. The list is long and H has covered most of them. Prioritizing will be important (eg- the US should prioritize energy problems over abortion issues right now).
    A “little here and a little there” towards progress, with the Fed helping at the edges is our best alternative.
    The US and Europe are in a position to take the leadership roles on some of our more pressing problems, but will we/they? I remain hopeful, but first, things might have to get worse.

  2. I think the influence of energy on US CPI is limited enough that tightening can suppress US inflation – well, plus time for the laggy components. UK/Europe are in a different boat for now.

    Using “unprecedented” a lot is fine. Starting Feb 2020, we entered UprecedentedLand and we are still wandering in that wilderness.

  3. To me the question is which happens first: Fed recognizes the epochal inflation shift and changes the target rate to some where between 3-4% or they continue to over tighten with both rates and money supply ushering in a period of deflation and massive (Depression like) economic destruction.

    If they asked me (they didn’t), the next meeting would announce a 100bps rate increase, keeping the dot plot at 4.6% target and a pause of QT. QT IMO is the largest source of the the current instability in financial assets.

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