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Category: Markets

Riding The Bubble

March 9, 2024March 11, 2024

By the end of jobs week in the US, market participants were still asking the

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Windfalls And Pitfalls

March 8, 2024March 11, 2024

There’s no respite for bears. Headed into the US jobs report, there were any number

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Jay’s Quotable

March 8, 2024March 10, 2024

Jerome Powell’s timeline for Fed confidence in the durability of the disinflation trajectory, and thereby

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2 Comments on Jay’s Quotable

Bears Driven To Brink Of Extinction As Powell Promises Rate Cuts

March 7, 2024March 14, 2024

“When we do get that confidence — and we’re not far from it — it’ll

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11 Comments on Bears Driven To Brink Of Extinction As Powell Promises Rate Cuts

CRE Slow Burn

March 7, 2024March 9, 2024

America’s slow-burning commercial real estate crisis continues to produce a slow drip of headlines. Steve

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3 Comments on CRE Slow Burn

No Surprises

March 6, 2024March 7, 2024

Surprise: There were no surprises to speak of from Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Wednesday.

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Rally Trivia And Pivot Remorse

March 5, 2024March 6, 2024

Here’s a notable statistic: If US equities post gains during the final two months of

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1 Comment on Rally Trivia And Pivot Remorse

An Obligatory Nod To Bitcoin’s New Record High

March 5, 2024March 14, 2024

Bitcoin hit a new record high on Tuesday. Maybe you noticed. I’m supposed to have

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7 Comments on An Obligatory Nod To Bitcoin’s New Record High

Records, Records Everywhere

March 4, 2024March 5, 2024

Tales of rekindled animal spirits are everywhere. Comparisons to the dot-com boom and 2021’s “everything

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2024 Isn’t 2021. It’s 2000. But Don’t Panic

March 4, 2024March 5, 2024

“This time is different.” So said Goldman’s David Kostin in his latest. Don’t laugh. Or

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2 Comments on 2024 Isn’t 2021. It’s 2000. But Don’t Panic

Sentimental Steepener

March 1, 2024March 3, 2024

Shorter-maturity Treasurys staged a pretty meaningful rally into the weekend following a lackluster read on

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1 Comment on Sentimental Steepener

A Few Quick Thoughts On Crypto As ‘Winter’ Thaws

March 1, 2024March 4, 2024

Fed cuts (or, more accurately, the expectation thereof later this year) are “sparking animal spirits.”

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9 Comments on A Few Quick Thoughts On Crypto As ‘Winter’ Thaws

As 2024 Rally Rolls On, Traders Hear Echoes Of 2021

February 29, 2024March 8, 2024

“Stay bullish.” That’s the message from a lot of people. From anyone you care to

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6 Comments on As 2024 Rally Rolls On, Traders Hear Echoes Of 2021

Making Do With Euphoria

February 29, 2024March 1, 2024

With two months in the books, 2024’s been generous to equity bulls. Both big-cap US

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3 Comments on Making Do With Euphoria

‘Egregiously Expensive’ Stocks Shouldn’t Keep You Up At Night, Subramanian Says

February 28, 2024February 29, 2024

The S&P 500’s “egregiously expensive.” That’s the bad news. The good news is, you shouldn’t

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1 Comment on ‘Egregiously Expensive’ Stocks Shouldn’t Keep You Up At Night, Subramanian Says

No Rush

February 28, 2024February 29, 2024

As tipped here earlier this week and on several occasions last, Fed rate-cut pricing for

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7 Comments on No Rush

Marko And The Mortals, Revisited

February 27, 2024February 28, 2024

If you’ve been bearish (or “cautious” or “defensive”) in the face of a rally that’s

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4 Comments on Marko And The Mortals, Revisited

I Gotta Have More Magnificent 7

February 26, 2024February 28, 2024

I might’ve mentioned this last week. I honestly can’t remember. And no, any recollection failure

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1 Comment on I Gotta Have More Magnificent 7

One Bank Asks: Is The Tech Ecosystem Now Its Own Asset Class?

February 26, 2024February 27, 2024

People are beginning to ask some — how should I put this? — interesting questions

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2 Comments on One Bank Asks: Is The Tech Ecosystem Now Its Own Asset Class?

Strategy For A Crucial, All-Important Week

February 26, 2024February 27, 2024

New week, same debates. The sparse color on offer Monday trod familiar ground as traders

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3 Comments on Strategy For A Crucial, All-Important Week

Magic Sauce

February 25, 2024February 26, 2024

I probably shouldn’t have read Warren Buffett’s annual letter. It only reminded me of the

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After Munger, Buffett Says Berkshire’s Size Rules Out Big Performance

February 24, 2024February 26, 2024

I’m going to dial back (which is to say omit entirely) the sarcasm and snark

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7 Comments on After Munger, Buffett Says Berkshire’s Size Rules Out Big Performance

Dynamics Of A ‘Never-Ending Stock Melt-Up’

February 23, 2024July 1, 2025

“A never-ending melt-up in index.” That’s what befuddled bears were pondering by the end of

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1 Comment on Dynamics Of A ‘Never-Ending Stock Melt-Up’

What Xi Jinping Can Learn From The Fed

February 23, 2024March 4, 2024

At some point this week, Nomura apparently cautioned those keen to pick the low in

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1 Comment on What Xi Jinping Can Learn From The Fed

Don’t Short A Bubble Exhibit 275 Billion

February 22, 2024March 4, 2024

I don’t want to pile insult atop injury for the earnest skeptics and well-meaning bubble

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9 Comments on Don’t Short A Bubble Exhibit 275 Billion

‘Nailed It’: McElligott On Nvidia

February 22, 2024February 23, 2024

“Nvidia nailed it.” So said Nomura’s Charlie McElligott on Thursday, as US equities looked for

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3 Comments on ‘Nailed It’: McElligott On Nvidia

In Japan: FOMO

February 22, 2024February 22, 2024

“Healthy.” That was one adjective bandied about Thursday, when the meteoric rally in Japanese equities

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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