Records, Records Everywhere

Tales of rekindled animal spirits are everywhere. Comparisons to the dot-com boom and 2021’s “everything bubble” are ubiquitous.

Although some of the more colorful such warnings overstate the case, there’s certainly evidence of froth across markets. Stocks are enjoying one of the more pronounced melt-ups in recent memory, credit spreads are near post-COVID (and post-GFC) tights and crypto’s in the news again.

Suffice to say bears can’t win for losing these days. They even lost the Japan caveat. For over 30 years, bears had a reliable snarky rejoinder to the contention that stocks generally go up over time: “Oh really? What about the Nikkei?” Last month, Japanese equities scaled a new record for the first time since 1989.

The chart above, from SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne, says it all. This is the first time in 35 years that global shares, the US benchmark, European equities and the Nikkei have all been at record highs together.

“Coupled with much higher interest rates on cash balances and the global 60/40 portfolio back to end-2021 highs, it’s fair to say investors must be feeling quite buoyant,” Lapthorne remarked.

Yes indeed. And bears quite forlorn.

I suppose this is as good a time as any to roll out the old “What could possibly go wrong?” quip.


 

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