‘Nailed It’: McElligott On Nvidia

“Nvidia nailed it.”

So said Nomura’s Charlie McElligott on Thursday, as US equities looked for new records on the heels of yet another beat and raise from the world’s most important stock and, increasingly, the world’s most important company.

Midday Wednesday, a few hours prior to Nvidia’s results, McElligott flagged the potential for dealer short gamma dynamics around 5050 SPX to facilitate a renewed melt-up. Now here we are.

“This velocity to the upside in spot index comes in light of the previously noted options dealer short gamma positioning in pockets of upside strikes, as for months, customers having been grabbing into calls on fear of the right-tail crash-up,” Charlie wrote.

That, in turn, means dealers are now buyers of futures (to stay hedged) into the escalating rally. That’s “classic accelerant flow action,” as McElligott put it.

“We blew through the long gamma at 5015/5020 and are now zooming into the short gamma window which remains up to 5100.” Read that again. Then look up at the chart. There’s a reason Charlie tends to be on the right side of the price action both in rallies and selloffs: He knows where these tipping points are.

Speaking of “tipping points,” that’s how Jensen Huang characterized the adoption rate of accelerated computing and generative AI. McElligott on Thursday described “insatiable demand” for the company’s products, which is “massively outstripping supply.”

Crucially for the stock (and thereby for the “S&P 1,” as someone jokingly described the US equity market earlier this week, referencing the extent to which Nvidia dominates performance attribution), Nvidia’s outlook struck a good balance: The guide was “strong enough to indicate ongoing momentum, while simultaneously conservative enough to be ‘attainable,'” McElligott wrote.

That could mean “more upside” down the road, “making it difficult for longs to part with the stock even after this insane run,” he added.


 

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