Two benign US CPI reports in a row might make a streak, but they don’t
Category: Markets
A Word On Goldman’s 2024 Fed Cut Call
Let’s be clear: All forecasts for the trajectory of Fed funds are guesses. Anything can
China’s Zhongzhi Crisis Underscores Risk Of Economic Collapse
An opaque Chinese conglomerate with a trillion yuan in assets spread across everything from real
America’s ‘Profit Reckoning’ Never Showed Up
This quarter (Q3) marks a year since investors were told to be on watch for
Discretionary Investors Fade Half Of Melt-Up Positioning Increase
For much of 2023, re-leveraging and re-risking was the purview of systematic investor cohorts mechanically
0DTE Options Take Over As Volume Share Hits Record
If markets feel choppy to you, it’s not your imagination. And if that chop seems
$130 Billion Tidal Wave Puts US Treasurys On Pace For Record Inflow
For an asset issued by a sovereign exhibiting signs of deteriorating governance and running an
Cooling Down, Heating Up
As we celebrate the coolest run of US core inflation in more than two years,
Is The Fed Done?
The Fed may be done. Indeed, the market suspects the Fed is done. July’s CPI
‘Forced Selling’ On The S&P? Here Are The Numbers
In “Waiting For Inflation,” I noted that potential vol control de-leveraging is still a subplot
Waiting For Inflation
“CPI eve” sessions are notoriously tedious in the 2020s. Monthly inflation reports out of the
The C-Suite Can’t Dodge Higher Interest Costs Forever
What happens to the world’s largest economy when corporations finally start to feel the heat
Is The A.I. Bubble In Its ‘Later Innings’?
There’s palpable tension in Wall Street research when it comes to discussions around 2023’s A.I.
Fate Of The World Hangs On Treasury Curve’s Nascent Bear Steepener
The fate of the universe hangs on the nascent bear steepener in the US curve,
Wilson Says Fiscal Largesse Put Him Offside On US Stocks
Unexpected fiscal largesse. That’s one, but not the only, reason Morgan Stanley’s house call on
Why Goldman Is Fading Last Week’s Bond Selloff
As discussed here last week, the move in US reals seen in and around the
Buffett’s Cash Pile Approaches Record Near $150 Billion
Break out the Cherry Coke and peanut brittle, it’s Berkshire weekend! They always sneak up
Micro, Not Macro, Explains 2023’s Stock Returns
Given the daily deluge of headlines documenting every twist and turn along what, rising soft
Is Voracious Risk Appetite A Contrarian Indicator?
Needless to say, and notwithstanding a little “friction” around Fitch’s decision to downgrade America, risk
Commodity Comeback?
Is it time to bet on commodities again? Already riding a huge run-up from the
Amazon Rakes In Revenue, Apple Enriches More Lives
Amazon had a lot of revenue in Q2. And they’re on track to have a
Supply, Ackman, Fitch Or All Three?
The bond selloff extended meaningfully on Thursday, as supply concerns, the Fitch downgrade and, at
BoE Hikes 14th Time. Says Inflation Will Be 2% In 2025
The Bank of England opted for a 25bps hike at the August policy meeting. Context
So You Don’t Want US Debt. What Are Your Options?
Exactly nobody who cared to weigh in on Wednesday believed Fitch’s decision to pull the
Record-High Stocks Seen ‘Inevitable’ Amid Summer Drift
Equities are going nowhere and somewhere all at the same time. Summer can be drudgery
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