Is the US in a recession? Who knows. Probably. Some sort of recession. The sun’s
Category: Markets
Where’s The Next Bull Market?
Opinions vary on whether mercurial US trade policy and a de facto abrogation of America’s
Capitol Punishment
Let’s dispense with a few obvious points up front. From a pseudo-philosophical perspective, it doesn’t
Is The Fed Ignoring An Inflation Expectations Crisis?
It’s a good thing 2025 Jerome Powell doesn’t put any more weight on the University
America Has A Problem. And The Only Solution Is Dollar Weakness
America has a problem. A lot of them, actually. Don’t get me started. We’ll be
More Extortion
Earlier this month, when the Taiwan dollar was busy staging a statistically impossible rally, officials
It’s Not ‘TDS.’ It’s ‘WTAFITGD’
Tariffs were supposed to be USD bullish, but I was supposed to be a corporate
The Pros Were ‘Glum.’ Then Geneva Happened
Professional investor sentiment improved this month, and thank goodness for that. Recall that last month’s
What The US-China Trade Truce Means For The Fed
What’s the read-through from the US-China trade truce for the Fed? That’s not a straightforward
‘Only Incompetent, Not Totally Insane’
Earlier this month, Marko Kolanovic said the Trump administration’s hopelessly mercurial approach to trade policy
‘Art Of The Deal’ Strikes Again
Art of the deal! Donald Trump agreed to pause most tariffs on China for 90
‘Great Progress’
US-China trade headlines will undoubtedly dominate the news flow in the days ahead. “GREAT PROGRESS”
Rotation Ongoing
If you’re wondering whether the latest flows data provided more evidence for the US-to-RoW rotation
Debating The Dollar
What’s wrong with the dollar? Notwithstanding a nascent bounce that finds the DXY pushing back
A Confused, Split BoE Cuts Rates As Trump Touts UK Trade Accord
Only from the Bank of England can you get a hawkish 25bps rate cut accompanied
‘So Much Uncertainty’
“Uncertainty” was the word of the day at Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC meeting press conference, where
Deep State Holds Rates Steady
The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as expected. There was no drama around the
Captain Capricious And The Taiwan Canary
This week’s Treasury refunding auctions garnered a lot of attention for obvious reasons. The macro-market
Neon Swan: What Just Happened In Taiwan?
If a six-standard-deviation event’s a black swan, what’s a 20-sigma-event? What color swan is that?
A Long Week For Jay Powell
This’ll be a long week for Jerome Powell. The Fed convenes Tuesday and Wednesday, and
Buffett, 94 With $350 Billion In Cash, Holds Court
Warren Buffett’s still alive. That was one takeaway from Berkshire’s annual meeting, where a 94-year-old,
Miracle Man
Congratulations to Donald Trump: Headed into the US afternoon on Friday, he was set to
Is The US Outflow Narrative Overdone?
They were still selling US equities over the last week. And they were still buying
Amazon, Apple Underwhelm As Questions Outnumber Answers
Amazon, which was in the news this week for kissing Donald Trump’s ass, rang up
Dumb and Dumber
Scott Bessent says the Fed needs to cut rates. He’d know. He and a “Tariff
Microsoft, Meta Beat Estimates As Big-Tech Sturdy
Microsoft results can be a tough cover. A lot depends on what Amy Hood says
Sooner Or Later, Trump’s Going To Commandeer The Fed
It’s tempting to ignore Donald Trump’s nonsensical ramblings — “malarkey,” to channel a certain senior
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