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Weltschmerz (It’s Lonely Being A Real Bear)
Everyone's always looking for bear market canaries, crash harbingers and bad omens more generally.
IMO Al Edwards’ equity market calls since 2009 qualify him as a permabear. I hear he’s been a much better bond strategist. In my former life as a consultant to a mega billion sovereign wealth fund I was impressed by SocGen’s derivatives desk but never by their equity strategy. Pessimism is perhaps a permanent feature of the French culture, and as a Paris denizen I encountered the phrase “c’est pas possible” from every French artisan I ever asked to fix a leak.
Do you remember when Albert Edaards and James Montier used to publish interesting pieces on “behavioral finance”? About 20-25 years ago. I still have copies, they were good stuff. I don’t recall Albert Edwards being such a bear then.