November was supposed to be a decent month for US equities. It wasn’t.

However Friday’s holiday-thinned session shaped up, the major benchmarks were all but guaranteed to post their worst month since the aftermath of Donald Trump’s ill-fated tariff rollout in April.

On the bright side, it could’ve been worse. At one point, the S&P was down nearly 5% for the month. (I know, I know: “Oh, the humanity!”)

For what it’s worth, the index suffers four pullbacks of 5% or more in a typical year. God knows US equities were due, having notched — checks notes — 33 new records since reclaiming all-time highs late in June.

Obviously, market concentration remains among the biggest concerns. As discussed here earlier this week, more than one in three names in the S&P is in a bear market, even as the index is just 3% from its October record high. When it comes to scary-sounding market breadth statistics, I could go on. And on. And on.

Instead, I’ll just reiterate that a record 63% of professional investors in BofA’s monthly fund manager poll said global shares are overvalued, and that’s almost entirely a function of rich multiples for the narrow market leadership.

And yet, to be a bear in a bubble is to risk one’s career. Michael Burry’s protestations (which you can now peruse on Substack for the “bargain” price of $380/year) aside, being early is absolutely the same as being wrong. The fact that he closed his fund to write on Substack is an ironic testament to that.

Even Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson — who, although he wouldn’t necessarily admit it, relished his reputation in the mainstream media as a diehard bear — is bullish for 2026.

The figure below, from the BofA fund manager poll, gives you a sense of the bullish skew in the distribution of buy-side guesstimates for next year.

The share who expect meaningful gains — around six in 10 — is roughly the same as the share who say stocks are overvalued. That’s telling. Colloquially: Sure it’s a bubble, which is why I’m expecting more gains. (Fewer than 10% of those surveyed expect big losses in 2026.)

Monetary policy should be a tailwind for the bulls. The odds of a Fed cut at the December FOMC meeting — which were as low as ~25% when the S&P bottomed this month — were more or less unchanged Friday at ~84%. So, it’s basically a lock.

Scott Bessent reiterated this week that “there’s a very good chance” Donald Trump will make an announcement on the next Fed chair “before Christmas.” Betting markets have Kevin Hassett as the favorite. (Write your own jokes. I’ve penned my share.)

“Regardless of who Trump ultimately nominates, the incoming Fed chair will, almost by definition, bring a more dovish bias to the Committee,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked. “It follows intuitively that even if the Fed chooses to cut rates in December, an early-2026 pause on the way to neutral policy rates will likely be made up for as soon as the summer.”