“Predicting Powell’s moves in the upcoming quarters will mean more than trying to come up with a fair value for financial assets.”
Category: Macro Tourist
Veteran Trader: ‘Credit Spreads Are All That Matter’
“Or have we reached that ‘obscene point’ where it makes sense to take out some blue tickets?”
Trader: I Don’t Know If The Fed Will Skip This Hike Or Not, But…
“It’s been a long time since the outcome of a Fed meeting hasn’t been a foregone conclusion.”
One Trader Is Pretty Sure ‘The Milkshake Trade’ Is Finished
“I am about to embark on a reason to sell US assets, but make no mistake”…
Trader: The Fed Finally Broke Something
“Bond traders are smarter. They just are.”
One Trader Delivers Bad News For Twitter’s Top Commodities Strategist
“Well, unfortunately for the President, there is a relationship between energy prices and economic growth, and it is indeed negatively correlated, but the lag is long.”
From Black Monday To The Dot-Com Bust To The GFC: A Visual History Of The S&P After Rate Cuts
“Was there ever a time when the Fed cut rates and stocks screamed higher immediately? Nah.”
And Behold: The Fed Blinks
“Why the terrible year for financial markets? It’s easy – the Fed.”
Trader: Crude, Nat Gas Moves Due To 1-800-GET-ME-OUT Moment For A Large Hedge Fund
“The truth of the matter is that there is a Behemoth out there that was long crude oil against short nat gas (along with short nat gas spreads).”
Trader Brings You A Quick, Animated S&P Midterm Election Chart
“Without further ado, here are the eighteen mid-term election periods since 1946.”
Trader: ‘I Am Paring Back Some Of My Bearishness This Morning’
“It made me laugh, and I started to worry that I might be overstaying my welcome on the dark side.”
One Trader Reminds You That America Is ‘Not An Island’
“…the global economy probably dictates much more than most market pundits would like to admit.”
One Trader Explains His Long Treasury Vol. Experiment
“At that point, there will be no easy answers for politicians and policy makers. That’s the end game.”
One Trader Thinks Millennial Investors Are About To Get Slaughtered
“Ahhh… Millennials… You gotta luv ‘em.”
Trader Outlines ‘The Most Dangerous Setup’
“Rightly or wrongly, Trump has hitched his wagon to the stock market’s fate.”
One Trader ‘Would Love To Return To A Market Where Chasing The Hot Stock No Longer Works’
“Great. I have now shown that fundamentals don’t matter and that chasing the hot stock is all one needs to do to outperform.”
Trader: Suddenly Everyone Is A Bond Bear
“Don’t you love it how, now – after the biggest sell-off in fixed income in decades – suddenly everyone is bearish?”
Trader: Ignore The ‘Druckenmiller Is Bearish’ Headlines
“I laughed when I saw the headlines from all the other traders who did the same. “
One Trader Doesn’t See Much Difference Between Italy And The U.S. On Fiscal Policy
“The world is changing. Deficits are the new normal and Italy’s latest salvo is just one of many changes that will happen in the coming months and years.”
Canadian Trader Weighs In On NAFTA Deal: ‘I’m Going With It’
“Is this the start of the loonie bull run?”
Trader Asks: Is The FOMC Drift Dead?
“Wait until the Fed finally stops tapping on the brake – this strategy’s alpha might not be completely dead.”
Trader: Things Have Changed And Here’s Where The World Is Going Next…
“Although the Republicans are supposedly the party of fiscal conservatism, we all know that sort of talk is only for when they are not in power.”
Trader Asks: How Long This ‘Cleanest Dirty Shirt’ Thesis Really Run?
“My bet is that on a relative basis, there are other shirts to buy.”
Trader Breaks Down ‘The Monster Eurodollar Option Trade’
“Will these most likely be dust? Sure. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t buys down here.”
Trader: The Question Is When Does The Fed Blink?
“My guess is that it is later rather than sooner, but we are definitely getting closer with days like today.”
Trader Reminds You: ‘Tomorrow Is Another QT Day’
“But here we are, with tomorrow (Wednesday August 15th), having just a shade over $23 billion of bonds expiring.”
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