If there’s some grand plan in Beijing for rescuing domestic demand, the Party is playing
Category: economy
Has The World Changed? Macro Watchers Still Divided Three Years Later
Macro observers generally fall into two categories in 2023: Those who believe the world changed
Jackson Hole, China Crisis In Focus As August Melts Away
Jackson Hole, and specifically what Jerome Powell has to say on Friday morning, is the
China Needs Major State Stimulus Amid ‘All-Out Deflation’
China needs to do something to turn things around. That much is clear, even if
China’s Very Bad Week Is Over, But Crisis Rolls On
A God awful week for Chinese markets mercifully came to an end, but not before
Is Helicopter Money The Only Option For China?
If you’re a Chinese mutual fund, Xi Jinping would prefer you didn’t sell stocks right
UK’s Inflation Problem Persists. Does It Even Matter?
Inflation fell markedly (and in some sense mechanically) in the UK last month, but another
Single-Family Building Drives Rebound In US Housing Starts
US housing starts rebounded last month after suffering a bad hangover from spring’s binge-building. At
Builder Sentiment Drops, Home Depot Beats, Buffett Buys
For the first time this year, US homebuilder sentiment declined. After dropping every month in
US Retail Sales Blow Away Estimates. Empire Fed Gauge Weak
Notwithstanding the scattered protestations of those desperately seeking confirmation bias for “slowdown” narratives that didn’t
China Cuts Rates Most Since 2020 Amid Disastrous Data
While previewing the release of key activity data for the Chinese economy, I not-so-gently suggested
‘Soft Landing’ Dominates In Macro Narrative Tug Of War
The “soft landing” narrative spent the last two or three months gathering adherents in the
Between CPI And Jackson Hole
Retail sales and the July FOMC minutes headline in the US this week. Notwithstanding ongoing
A Good News Story. Literally.
Friday’s update on consumer sentiment was an uneventful affair. Americans’ perceptions of the economy and
PPI Overshoots In Disappointing Follow Up To Favorable CPI Report
In a minor blow to the US disinflation narrative, producer prices rose more than expected
September Fed Hike Unlikely After Second Benign CPI Report
US consumer prices rose in line with expectations last month, according to the most important
A.I. Meets R-Star
Not everyone’s convinced that generative A.I. is the future. While most analysts and economists readily
Unlucky Number 7: Mortgage Rates Jump After Fitch Move
Thanks Fitch! US mortgage rates sport a seven-handle again, and you can thank, in part
Xi Has Deflation
Deflation is a taboo topic in China. You’re not supposed to talk about it. Especially
Congratulations, America! You Now Have $1 Trillion In Credit Card Debt
Congratulations, America! You now have $1 trillion in credit card debt for the first time
Excuses Aside, China’s Economic Gloom Continues To Worsen
There was more disappointing economic news out of China on Tuesday. No one should be
Americans’ Revolving Credit Falls First Time In 25 Months
Last month, I asked if the US consumer was “finally exhausted.” I was editorializing around
Inflation Update, Treasury Auctions In Focus After Fitch Whirlwind
Still reeling from last week’s whirlwind, bond traders’ focus will turn to US inflation data
US Labor Market Cools, Wages Warm
The US economy added just 187,000 jobs in July, Friday’s closely-watched government report showed. Revisions
The Yield-Curve Control Endgame
I’m reluctant to indulge discussions about US debt and deficits. Everyone is ready and willing
Is America’s Services Motor ‘Sputtering’?
US services sector activity expanded in July at a modest pace, data released on Thursday
Fed Gets More Good News In Under-The-Radar Macro Release
US labor productivity rose the most in almost three years in Q2, data out Thursday
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