US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims Paint Mixed Picture Following Fed
US retail sales posted a surprise increase, but initial jobless claims handily topped estimates for a second week, in what counted as a mixed read on the world's largest economy a day after the Fed telegraphed its intent to raise rates further after taking June off.
The headline retail sales print, a 0.3% advance, came in near the top of the range. Guesses from nearly six-dozen economists ran the gamut from a 1% decline to a 0.5% increase.
It was the second consecutive monthly advance. Consens
Another”Meh”
Real rates at the moment are not restrictive enough to get us to the FOMC’s 2% target. But if the Fed holds here and inflation continues to recede, they’ll become more restrictive with each passing week. Couple that with ongoing QT and it may be enough to do the trick.