Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Headlines in the holiday-shortened US trading week will revolve around Kevin McCarthy's efforts to shepherd a debt ceiling accord agreed over the weekend through the House, where some of the same unruly GOPers who made a show of denying him the gavel in January will doubtlessly dramatize the final legislative sprint. If that process looks anything like the speakership vote it could make for some tense moments, but I doubt the bill will ultimately be allowed to fail. If it does (or looks like it

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    The chart linked above shows US labor force (blue), employed persons (green), and job openings + employed (red). The gap between red (openings + employed) and green (employed) lines is job openings. There is a limit to how closely the green (employed) line can approach the blue (labor force) line, due to friction. The red (openings + employed) line intersecting with the blue (labor force) line illustrates the tightness of the labor market. For the labor market to loosen to pre-pandemic levels, it look like job openings may have to be cut in half.

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