Americans Refuse To Stop Spending As Inflation Rises In Worrying Data

Friday’s top-tier data release out of the US suggested the Fed has more work to do.

Americans spent at a far brisker pace than expected last month, and inflation was hotter than anticipated, the government’s personal income and spending update for April showed.

I won’t bury the lede. Core prices rose 0.4% from March, ahead of the 0.3% consensus. That pushed the YoY pace to 4.7%.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but that’s why the likes of Jim Bullard, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan have all recently suggested that more hikes are necessary. Core inflation isn’t coming down.

The headline gauge likewise came in hot on both a MoM and YoY basis. Core services ex-housing, the measure the Fed is watching like a hawk (no pun intended), rose 0.4% from March, the fastest pace since the beginning of the year.

It’s not funny, but in a way it is. The Fed’s hikes aren’t working. Sure, the “lags” are “long and variable” and the bank stress is supposed to complement the Fed’s efforts to curb demand in the service of coaxing the inflation genie back in the lantern, but so far, it ain’t workin’ out (if readers will pardon the brief lapse into the colloquial).

Personal spending in April rose 0.8%, well ahead of forecasts and near the top-end of the range (0% to 1.1%). Real personal spending rose 0.5%, also comfortably ahead of consensus (0.3%). Both nominal and real consumption were the briskest since January’s spending spree.

Current-dollar spending in April was evenly distributed across goods ($64.8 billion) and services ($86.9 billion).

I’m reminded of a rap lyric I overheard while wandering around what, during the winter months, is a quiet boardwalk here on the island I (still) call home: “Did I ask about the price? Hell nah, just bag it up / I’ll spend my whole left pocket, cause I don’t give a f—.” That’s America. And, unfortunately, that’s what’s wafting from beachside speakers which, 25 years ago, would be playing Otis Redding in May.

Flash PMIs for May released earlier this week suggested US services sector activity remains robust, and also that wage-price spiral dynamics are feeding inflation. Friday’s data came on the heels of upward revisions to spending and core prices in the second read on Q1 GDP+. Between that and benign jobless claims, it’s a stretch to suggest the economy is cooling in any meaningful way.

With the caveat that there’s a lot of data between now and next month’s policy gathering, it’s beginning to look like the June FOMC meeting will, at the least, be a hawkish pause. Another hike is entirely possible, again depending on the evolution of the data between now and then.

Oh, and Friday’s figures also showed the personal saving rate fell for the first time in seven months. “Did I ask about the price?”


 

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4 thoughts on “Americans Refuse To Stop Spending As Inflation Rises In Worrying Data

  1. The American consumer… Basically, un-killable.

    As I said, the one problem is then to try and garner pity for “folks who don’t have $400 in savings”… Generally speaking, I am in the “economics isn’t a morality tale” camp, though I recognize that morality drives a lot of people thinking about economic policy so optics matter. But, here, even I go “at some point, you’re supposed to grow up and be a mature adult, capable of controlling yourself. Don’t come crying when the money runs out”.

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