Don’t be garish. Don’t be bearish. That was the message to employees at China International
Category: Duly Noted
Bond Bonanza
I spent the better part of last month calling for a bond rally. Duration was
In Rates: ‘Imminent And Enormous Short-Squeeze Risk’
“Simply put, this fattens the right-tail of the US economic soft landing scenario,” Nomura’s Charlie
Unfazed Treasury Market Underscores Regime Shift
Treasurys were mostly unfazed early this week despite a mixed reception for the front-loaded supply
CTAs: A ‘Tail’ Of Two Drawdowns
If you’re searching for the quintessential manifestation of the macro-policy about-face behind November’s “everything rally”
Will Higher Rates Ever Matter For Big Business Bottom Lines?
Here’s an idea: Equities have already priced in the drag from a higher cost of
Hedge Fund ‘Crowding’ Hits Record Amid Mega-Cap Rally
Earlier this week, in one of the dailies, I included a chart depicting record hedge
Popular Strategist Reveals Top 10 Trades For 2024
On Tuesday, BofA’s Savita Subramanian made the case for S&P 5,000 in 2024. Suffice to say
Investors Say No Thanks To TIPS
The Treasury auction drama continued on Tuesday with a tailing 10-year TIPS sale. I should
Here’s How Fed Balance Sheet Runoff Ends
Last week, I noted that ongoing drain from the Fed’s RRP facility telegraphed the end
Can Argentina Really Dollarize?
In the wake of Javier Milei’s landmark election in Argentina, focus has turned to his
Money Fund AUM Hits Another Record. RRP Drain Starts Clock On QT End
Money market fund assets scaled yet another new peak in the week to November 15,
Wall Street’s Most Famous Bear Explains How Stocks Avoided The Worst
Contracting liquidity was supposed to pressure US equities during the dog days of summer and
Alternative Scenarios
I doubt I’m telling readers anything they don’t already know when I say year-ahead outlook
Financial Conditions Just Eased Dramatically. Here’s What It Means
If you’re wondering just how much of the financial conditions tightening impulse seen from late-July
Wild CPI Fireworks Leave Traders Asking What Year It Is
If the Fed was nervous about the prospect of easier financial conditions in the face
No Fed Cuts For A Year: The Hawkish Case
As you might’ve heard, there’s considerable disagreement across major banks regarding the likely trajectory of
Why Goldman Is Bullish On Commodities. Again
Goldman is bullish on commodities. In itself, that’s not exactly news. Goldman is perennially constructive
Why One Popular Strategist Is Constructive Into Year-End
“It feels to me like a short vol trade in rates,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said
Money Fund AUM Hits New Record. RRP Drops Below $1 Trillion
Money market funds took in another $17 billion in the week to November 8, data
Where Are Stocks Most Vulnerable To Recession?
What’s the most vulnerable segment of the market? That depends on your macro outlook, but
How Much ‘Extra’ Cash Is Left Out There?
How much “extra” cash is out there? That question is a fixture of the post-pandemic
Dicey Oil Eyed As Demand Canary
Things were looking dicey for crude mid-week. I mentioned previously that the “powder keg” premium
CTAs ‘Poleaxed’ In Rates Rally, But Big Short Cover Still Distant Prospect
Those of you old enough to remember March may recall that the fireworks surrounding SVB’s
Powder Keg Premium Disappears From Crude
Oil managed to find its footing at the beginning of the week amid escalating turmoil
Kolanovic: ‘Bad News Is Good News’ Zone May Be Quite Narrow
“The ‘bad news is good news’ zone may be quite narrow,” JPMorgan analysts led by
Goldman Called The Bond Rally. Here’s What The Bank Says Now
There’s room for US Treasury yields to fall further, but the floor’s higher now than
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