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Dicey Oil Eyed As Demand Canary
Things were looking dicey for crude mid-week.
I mentioned previously that the "powder keg" premium was gone in oil. For a week or two, traders turned to crude to hedge spillover risk from the Israel-Hamas conflict, but that trade looks dead.
WTI was below support Wednesday, trading beyond three-month lows. Brent fell below $80 for the first time since July.
The slide was enough to catch the attention of Bloomberg's terminal bloggers, who made it their "question of the day." "What is oil tel
There is basically no supply cut going on.
OPEC+ exports are up YTD in 2023 vs 2022, and only slightly down on a monthly basis right now. Saudi taking all the production cuts, Russia exporting more and taking share.
The world’s largest producer, the US, is producing at all time record levels, beating previous (pre-pandemic) record by a significant margin (4% ish).
Well said !! There’s plenty of supply because sanctions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela are not effective and/or aren’t being enforced or are de facto virtually unenforceable. Any incumbent party would not want to come into an election year with high gasoline prices/inflation. Of course, yesterday’s Virginia state election results demonstrate that Repubs are still failing to get any traction, particularly with women voters. So the current incumbent party may have nothing to worry about as Repubs continue to fail.