Think you made money in stocks over the last two years? Think again! Your gains,
Category: Duly Noted
A Calm Rally Is A Better Rally
Everyone loves a good, rollicking crash-up, but lest we should forget in our zeal to
Who Dares Short Musk, The Great And Powerful?
The only person who can compete with Donald Trump for space above the digital fold
Hedges Roasting On An Open Fire
“A smoldering pile of ash.” That’s your puts, may they rest in peace. Over the
Leveraged ETFs Were $17 Billion Flow Kicker To MAGA Rally
So, yeah: Modern markets did their thing in the monster, mid-week MAGA melt-up. The post-election
The Dollar In Trump’s Second Coming
A word on the dollar. I suppose I should say another word on the dollar.
US Stocks: Exceptional And Exceptionally Expensive
How richly-valued are US equities? It’s all relative. To the dot-com bust. I’m kidding. But
Red Sweep Or Harris-Gridlock?
Admittedly, I don’t so much enjoy the days ahead of US elections. It’s very difficult,
Pre-Election Flows Check
If you were wondering, inflows to US equity funds continued in the lead-up to an
Don’t Worry About That. Worry About This.
“The sea was angry that day, my friends.” The waters were a bit choppy on
‘Fierce’ Mechanical Buying Could Turbocharge A Post-Election Stock Rally
If we can make it through the US election without “incident” — and I’ll let
Never Surrender! (The Trump Premium)
Bonds. Everyone’s talking about them. Well, probably not “everyone.” And if someone is talking about
The Big Bond Question
Treasurys, like the nation which issues them, are at a critical juncture. That was the
Is Generative AI A True ‘This Time Is Different’ Moment?
I realize — better than most I’d wager, given how immersed I stay in the
Is Dollar Strength Another Trump Trade?
Don’t look now, but the dollar’s on track for its best month since the “dollar
The Term Premium’s Back
If you think “way” back to this time last year, you might vaguely recall something
Landing Secured?
There’s talk of a Fed pause. Who could’ve seen that coming? I don’t relish “I
It’s The Liquidity!
I have a love-hate relationship with liquidity-based explanations for risk-asset behavior. It’s self-evidently the case
Corporate Equity Bid May Hit $1 Trillion In 2025
Who’s going to buy the stocks? Or, put differently, who’s going to buy stakes in
‘Everybody’s An Economic Populist Now’
I don’t want to dwell too much on hypothetical US election outcomes given the myriad
‘The Stock Selloff Is Canceled,’ Rubner Says
Looking for a simple bull case? Of course you are. Who’s going to turn down
Buckle Up For A 2.5% Stock ‘Crash’
It’s probably fair to suggest the unofficial “consensus” on Wall Street is year-end stock rally.
Another Modern Market Melt-Up?
If US equities felt melt-up-ish to you midway through Monday’s bond market holiday, it wasn’t
Hedge Funds ‘Rapidly’ Sold Chinese Stocks This Week
I’ve cautioned recently against reading too much into a monumental rally in Chinese shares. My
Are We Still In A FOMO Regime?
Are we still living in a FOMO regime? How would one go about determining such
Wilson Upgrades Cyclicals As Bonds Say Jobs Report Not One-Off
The red-hot September jobs report was a game-changer in at least one respect: It compelled
2024 Stock Inflows Near Half-Trillion. MMF AUM Swells Further
On the heels of a near $65 billion two-week bonanza, inflows to global equity funds
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