An equity rally built on expectations for aggressive rate cuts is inherently paradoxical. If you’re
Category: Duly Noted
Macro Volte-Face Triggered Black Swan Drawdown For CTAs
“Trend following had a tough time,” SocGen’s Sandrine Ungari gently remarked, in a recent note.
Wild Dislocation Enabled Historic VIX Spike
Today’s the one-week anniversary of the largest VIX spike on record. How are you celebrating?
Cash! Money Fund AUM Nears $6.2 Trillion In VaR Shock Safety Bid
We reached the point of diminishing returns months ago on stating and restating the same
Another Day, Another Bad Treasury Auction
I suppose it’s not surprising that Thursday’s long bond sale went poorly. After all, Wednesday’s
A Quick Word On A Bad Auction
In light of recent fireworks across the US rates complex, and considering 10-year yields are
Why The Crash-Down Rebound Won’t Morph Into A New Crash-Up
If you’re wondering what typically happens to equities and the VIX following two-session spasms akin
Traders Rushed To Hedge As Crash Ushered In A Whole New World
The outcome distribution for markets expanded meaningfully over the past several sessions. Maybe you noticed.
Albert Edwards Sees Recession, Deflation And Also Inflation
Albert Edwards’s tech “crash” call isn’t looking too shabby three weeks later. Or not too
Vol Complex Goes ‘Bonkers’ Into Stock Plunge
“Vol of vol never lies,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said Friday, as the VIX squeezed higher
Nvidia Gets Weird
On several occasions this year, I suggested we may be approaching a kind of market
False Dawn? US Pending Home Sales Jump
Guess what? Contract signings in the US housing market picked up smartly last month. That’s
Treasury Cuts Borrowing Estimate Amid QT Taper: A Quick Word
The US government will sell less debt than expected during the current quarter, the new
‘Allocations Are Full’: Stocks Face End Of $300 Billion Money Spigot
Stocks might’ve stumbled recently, but inflows continue unabated. On net, anyway. Global equities headed into
Uncharted Territory
So… market concentration. It’s topical. And it’s extreme. It’s topical because it’s extreme. At this
‘Anything Can Happen’: Magnificent 7 Plunges
Big-cap US tech came into this week squarely on the back foot having traded meaningfully
Notable Seasonals
Coming out of a turbulent week both for US equities and domestic politics, and looking
What If All The AI Spending Never Pays Off?
What if all the AI spending doesn’t pay off? That’s the question no one wants
Revenge Of The Little Guy
If you were wondering whether the historic rotation to small-caps that dominated market headlines earlier
Netflix Delivers Solid Quarter As Paid Adds Crush Estimates
It’s been a very long time since Netflix’s quarterly results counted as a major market
Behind 2024’s Biggest Tech Wreck
America’s mighty mega-caps were under siege on Wall Street mid-week. The Nasdaq 100 was down
Is The Rotation For Real?
Is the rotation for real? That’s one key question for equity investors going forward. As
Trump’s Odds, Stocks And The Grover Cleveland Analogue
Prediction market odds took another turn in favor of Donald Trump in the wake of
Stock Funds Pass Quarter-Trillion Inflow Mark For 2024
If you’re keeping track at home, global equities just posted their sixth consecutive weekly gain.
A Broader Bull May Be No Bull At All
I don’t know if I’d call it a “consensus” narrative exactly, but a popular take
High Rate Hurdle Hard To Clear For US Housing
“Most borrowers do not have much of an incentive to refinance at current rates,” MBA
US Credit Card Debt Rebounds, Hits New Record At $1.35 Trillion
Looking for more evidence that incorrigible American consumers might’ve finally exhausted the last of their
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