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Category: Duly Noted

Gilt Trip

January 12, 2025January 12, 2025

Who’s on gilt watch? Everyone’s hands should be raised. The UK government bond market’s coming

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Cash Cult Keeps Gathering Adherents

January 10, 2025January 10, 2025

If you’re curious, money market funds kicked off the new year with a big inflow.

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1 Comment on Cash Cult Keeps Gathering Adherents

Risk Of US Stock Drawdown Rises To One In Three

January 8, 2025January 8, 2025

The risk of a meaningful stock pullback’s elevated. You can tell because… well, have you

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2 Comments on Risk Of US Stock Drawdown Rises To One In Three

FOMC Minutes Betray Early Concern Over Tariffs, Deportations

January 8, 2025January 8, 2025

During last month’s press conference, Jerome Powell went out of his way to suggest upward

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1 Comment on FOMC Minutes Betray Early Concern Over Tariffs, Deportations

How Leveraged ETFs Feed The Beast

January 7, 2025

I’ve spoken at some length recently about the extent to which modern market structure and

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4 Comments on How Leveraged ETFs Feed The Beast

US Dominance Of Global Equity Market Reaches Existential Extremes

January 6, 2025

If your business is stocks, the US is all that matters. As 2025 dawned, the

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1 Comment on US Dominance Of Global Equity Market Reaches Existential Extremes

Stock Bull Out Of Patience With Bond Bear, Wilson Warns

January 6, 2025

And the most important variable for stock performance in January is — drumroll — rates.

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Options Show No Fear Of New Stock Melt-Up

January 2, 2025

They’re hedging downside, but nobody’s especially concerned about missing the boat on a prospective new

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US Money Fund Assets Edge Closer To $7 Trillion

December 26, 2024

A strong year for money market fund flows was set to go out with a

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Risk-Loving Fund Managers May Be Contrarian ‘Sell’ Signal

December 20, 2024December 20, 2024

If a pullback in US stocks is imminent, don’t say you weren’t warned. In contrarian

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1 Comment on Risk-Loving Fund Managers May Be Contrarian ‘Sell’ Signal

The $6.75 Trillion Question

December 19, 2024December 19, 2024

It’s been a helluva year for money market funds. With just just seven business days

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Just Another Bubble Chart

December 16, 2024December 16, 2024

Everyone loves a good “How expensive is the US stock market?” chart. And God knows

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1 Comment on Just Another Bubble Chart

Club Capital

December 15, 2024December 15, 2024

Let’s say you’re an average American. A “normal economic person,” as Jerome Powell once put it.

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1 Comment on Club Capital

Systematic Stock-Buying Maxed, VIX Squeeze Potential Builds

December 11, 2024

You’ve all heard me carry on recently about the potential for more re-leveraging from systematic

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2 Comments on Systematic Stock-Buying Maxed, VIX Squeeze Potential Builds

No One Dare Question The Stock Party

December 9, 2024December 9, 2024

You’d be hard pressed right now to find a strategist willing to swim against the

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US Households See Brighter Financial Future Post-Election

December 9, 2024December 9, 2024

Good news! Americans are feeling great all of a sudden about their personal finances. Ok,

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9 Comments on US Households See Brighter Financial Future Post-Election

More, More, More: Inflows To US Stocks Continue

December 6, 2024December 6, 2024

Inflows to US equity funds continued over the last week, according to the latest update.

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Money Fund Assets Near $7 Trillion On Massive Inflow

December 5, 2024December 5, 2024

Two weeks back, I wondered aloud if we were witnessing the early stages of the

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The ‘7 Most Important Factors’ For Stocks Into Year-End

December 4, 2024December 4, 2024

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: This time of year can be kind to

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1 Comment on The ‘7 Most Important Factors’ For Stocks Into Year-End

Leverage!

December 3, 2024December 3, 2024

lev·er·age noun Why the vast majority of my drinks were free in the four-year period

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3 Comments on Leverage!

Big Bubbles And ‘Unrealistic Outcomes’

December 2, 2024

If your aim is to suggest US equities — which notched more new record highs

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Inflows To US Stocks Shatter More Records

November 29, 2024November 29, 2024

They were still buying US stocks over the last several days. If you were curious

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Stocks Aren’t Out Of Melt-Up Fuel Yet

November 26, 2024November 26, 2024

With all the talk of record (or near record) inflows to US equity funds, and

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Structural, Ongoing And Permanent

November 25, 2024November 25, 2024

I’m never sure how much editorial attention to afford the ongoing active-to-passive shift in the

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1 Comment on Structural, Ongoing And Permanent

Buy It All

November 22, 2024

In the humorously titled “MAGAFOMOTINA,” I noted that US equities have surpassed $400 billion of

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1 Comment on Buy It All

Commencing ‘Cash Out’?

November 21, 2024November 21, 2024

Has the great “cash out” commenced? No, probably not. But US money market funds did

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An Equity Funding Squeeze?

November 19, 2024November 19, 2024

If you want to explain the price of something, a good place to start is

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

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To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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