There was more evidence Monday that Americans’ medium-term inflation expectations are drifting higher (again) amid tariff concerns and generalized macro uncertainty on the eve of Donald Trump’s second inauguration.

The latest vintage of the New York Fed’s consumer poll, released on Monday ahead of CPI data due mid-week, showed household inflation expectations at the three-year horizon rose 0.4ppt in December, to 3%. The unrounded figure was the highest since November of 2023.

As the figure below shows, the month-to-month increase was the second-largest of the post-pandemic era and the third-largest in the (admittedly short) history of the series.

Mercifully, 12-month ahead expectations were unchanged (at 3%) and households’ outlook for price growth actually improved (i.e., cooled) at the five-year point, where expectations slipped to 2.7% from 2.9%. That latter series is too new to put any stock in, though — it was established just a few years ago.

The unwelcome uptick in families’ medium-term price growth outlook came on the heels of the highest longer run expectations print since 2008 in the preliminary University of Michigan survey for January, released on Friday. So, this was the second worrisome inflation outlook update in two business days (two trading sessions).

Also notable from the NY Fed poll: Households’ perceptions regarding the ease with which a new job could be found in the event an existing job’s lost deteriorated.

As the figure shows, that probability dropped to the lowest since April 2021, when the US labor market began to overheat in earnest.

The nearly four-point MoM decline was the largest since the onset of the pandemic.

On the bright side, the series which measures perceived probability of losing one’s job in the first place dropped to the lowest in almost a year.