No Bears Allowed. Literally

Don’t be garish. Don’t be bearish.

That was the message to employees at China International Capital Corp, where analysts aren’t allowed to express negative views on the Chinese economy. They can’t say anything untoward about markets or wear luxury brands either.

Notably, the ban on negativity applies to private discussions as well as notes and public commentary, according to an internal research department memo seen by US financial media outlets.

If you had any questions as to whether China’s economic problems are solved, that should answer them. According to Bloomberg, CICC’s memo covers client engagement, social media and even “employees’ family members,” who are encouraged to “abide by basic moral standards.”

Employees are also required to be active participants in Party functions. That’s Party with a capital “P.” As for regular party functions, not so much. CICC employees were told they shouldn’t take taxis home from roadshows and they aren’t supposed to order drinks at business-related dinners. (Walking home is easier when you’re sober.)

The firm is engaged in a sweeping effort to cut costs, and the government is determined that banks will support the flagging property market, which Xi deliberately torpedoed. CICC is hardly unique in banning bears and cracking down on displays of analyst wealth. Recall that deflation is a taboo subject and if you’re going to talk about the currency, you better have the “correct” view.

The US gave Xi an emperor’s welcome in San Francisco earlier this month, and American business leaders fell all over themselves to attend a dinner held in his honor. That, for an adversary whose behavior continues to suggest that the best strategy for dealing with China is to simply stand aside and let Xi tank his own economy. Instead, US CEOs and financiers continue to show Xi the same deference he enjoys from his subjects back home.

Needless to say, banning bearish commentary only underscores the notion that the situation remains touch and go in China. In a testament to that, PMI data released on Thursday showed manufacturing contracted a second month. The gauge spent seven of the last eight months below the 50 demarcation line.

The non-manufacturing index likewise surprised to the downside, printing just 50.2, the worst read since last December, when Xi lifted COVID curbs overnight.

Do note: The services index (the non-manufacturing gauge covers services and construction) fell below 50, joining the factory sector in contraction.

That sounds bad, but whatever you do, don’t talk about it.


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