What could go wrong?
Category: bonds
As ‘Tantrum’ Risk Comes Calling, Nomura’s McElligott Flags CTA Bond Selling As Legacy Long Unwound
Trade optimism is running rampant and crowded positioning looks set to unwind.
Chasing Your Own Tail And ‘Zombies At Dawn’
Price discovery lives – even as zombies make a comeback.
Here’s Who Will (And Won’t) Be Buying US Debt In 2020
Hint: The Fed is the largest source of demand.
Nomura’s McElligott Flags Potential For Major Inflection Away From Legacy CTA Bond Long
“This would drive mechanical selling flows from what has been one of the largest ‘gross $ exposure’ positions in the model all year”.
No Escape From ‘Flattening Vortex’ As Long As ‘Resistance To Redistributive Forces’ Persists, Deutsche’s Kocic Warns
“The resistance against radical redistribution of wealth has been remarkably robust and resilient”.
Liquidity May Be Disappearing In The Most Liquid Market On Earth
“In our view, the significant drop in rates market liquidity is not temporary”.
‘Good News Is Good News’ Again. Here’s What It Means For Markets, According To Goldman
“…better growth needs to take over as a driver”.
Chaos In JGB Land Sparks Global Bond Rout After Margin Calls, ‘Horrific’ Auction In Japan
“Tantrum” risk comes calling.
‘The News And Data Have Clearly Worsened’, It’s ‘Time To Play Defense’, One Bank Warns
“Every major economy is seeing a full-blown industrial/manufacturing slowdown”.
The Macro Tourist: Inflation Is ‘The Best Long-Term Macro Risk Reward Trade Out There’…
“Contrary to the debt-will-overwhelm-us crowd”…
It’s ‘A Sharp Bounce, Not A Trend’: Goldman Says Bond Selloff Probably Done After Rout
“Any truce in the trade war is likely to be temporary”.
Investors ‘Poorly Exposed To Positive News’: Momentum Massacre Makes Case For ‘Doom-Laden Stories’
“Bond risk in equity markets should not be overlooked”.
It’s ‘August In Reverse’ As Bond Selloff Worsens
This comes with the obligatory caveat that a single tweet could send everyone scurrying to safety, pushing yields back lower.
The Ride Of The Valkyries: SocGen’s Juckes Has Visions Of ‘Bond Vigilante Gun-Ships’
Don’t get too excited – it’s a correction, “not a turn in the trend”.
What Happens If The Nascent Bond Selloff Has Legs?
Don’t burst my bubble.
Nomura’s McElligott Talks The ‘Pain Trade’ And What More Bearish Rates Action Would Mean For Equities
“…the current consensus / ‘Momentum’ positioning construct is a pure reflection of the ‘Duration Trade'”.
Traders To Ponder Bonds, Key Data In New Week As ‘This Guy Jerome’ Goes Quiet
Although Europe will make headlines, there’s plenty to focus on in the US.
US Bond Yields Will Keep Falling Unless One Of These 3 ‘Disruptors’ Comes Calling
This should sound familiar.
Nomura’s McElligott: ‘The Only Catalyst To Turn The Tide On Perpetually Lower Rates May Be MMT’
“From a secular perspective, the only catalyst I can see on the horizon”…
It’s America’s Turn To Inflate The Bond Bubble, Goldman Says
From here forward, the bullish bond impulse will have to come from the US.
And Now, A Brutal Bloodbath In Bonds
We were due.
Albert Edwards Reprises Famous Ice Age Thesis After ‘Cold’ Summer For Critics
“My outlandish visions can suddenly come to pass very quickly indeed”.
‘Hey, Where’s My Yield?’: UBS, BNP See 10Y US Yields Tumbling To Just 1% As Growth Slows
“Our growth forecasts remain below consensus, even though consensus has come down significantly”.
Alan Greenspan: Negative Rates In The US ‘Just A Matter Of Time’
Not far-fetched – not even a little bit.
Why A Flat Curve Ties The Fed’s Hands And May Force ‘Outer Rim’ Easing Options
Trouble with the curve.
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