So one of the things I’ve been harping on since the release of the Fed
Category: 10Y
Trader To Trump: “You’ve Got One More Chance To Deliver”
“Trump needs to deliver next Tuesday or markets will throw a tantrum.”
Dollar Pulled Between Minutes And Mnuchin, Crude Hopes For Bullish EIA Print
Ok so it’s Thursday morning and everyone has generally come around to what I said
No, Those Fed Minutes Were Not Hawkish
Following the release of the latest Fed Minutes, I was exceedingly amused to watch as seemingly every commentator one cared to (virtually) consult tried to put a hawkish spin on things. That is of course consistent with what Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow described overnight as a “hawkish retelling” of an otherwise dovish statement.
Confusion In The Air After Fed Minutes
FOMC TO START BALANCE SHEET DEBATE AT UPCOMING MEETINGS
MOST FED OFFICIALS JUDGED GRADUAL RATE HIKE PACE APPROPRIATE
FOMC SEES DOWNSIDE RISK FROM STRONG DOLLAR
One Trader Doesn’t Get Why You’re So Damn “Punchy” This Morning
” The rest must have done some people good, because the feel of the market is a bit punchy as we start out of the gate. I’ve no strong explanation why”…
Dollar On A Harker High, European Economy Hums Despite Political Turmoil, Kuroda Continues To Confuse
Well, that escalated quickly. It wasn’t hard to predict what would set the tone overnight.
Markets To Trump: “Show Me The Damn Money, Already”
Is the White House serious about tax reform and fiscal stimulus, or was that all bullsh*t designed purely to get the President elected so Steve Bannon could implement his social agenda and promote nationalism?
Did The Market Misread The Most Important Event Of The Week?
So we got a hawkish Yellen on Capitol Hill. Or did we?
The Week That Was: “The Hardest Thing To Do Is Justify Hedging”
Well, it’s been one hell of a week. We started on a sugar high thanks
Here Comes The Next “Tantrum”
I’m always warning about VaR shocks. More specifically, I like to remind investors that in
“Buridan’s Ass, Meet Scylla And Charybdis”
As I noted earlier on Friday, this week provided nothing in the way of clarity
A French Kiss Leaves Global Risk Queasy On Friday
If you were looking for clarity with regard to President Donald Trump’s policies or for any kind
“Tortured Traders” And Uncertainty: One Trader Weighs In On Spooked Markets
“Yesterday, NY Fed President Dudley said it was very unusual to see stocks rising when there’s so much uncertainty. True, but they’re getting a lot of help on the regulatory and tax side. But there’s no evidence in other markets that everyone has a clear vision of the path ahead.”
Albert Edwards Really Wants To Bitch At Janet Yellen, But He’s Going To Talk About Copper Instead
Last week, everyone’s favorite bear Albert Edwards tried to warn us. But did we listen?
Entire World Scrambles To Figure Out Why The Hell The Dollar Isn’t Stronger On Thursday
So what gives? Well, probably not a lot. It could just be everyone is taking a breather. But, in a testament to Nassim Taleb’s “narrative fallacy” argument, we have an overwhelming tendency to ascribe “causes” where there are none.
Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causation Which Is Fine Because That Was Never The Point
The problem – or at least one of the problems – seems to be that whenever some people hear “correlation”, they Marty McFly it right back to high school science class and regurgitate the old “correlation doesn’t equal causation” line and then subsequently tune out as if they’ve dropped the mic on me.
Yuuuge Inflation Print Sends Dollar, March Odds, Yields Soaring
Going into the week it was all about two things: Yellen on Capitol Hill and
“Bigly”: Reflation Is Back As Dollar Rises, Global Stocks Rally, Oil Eyes EIA Data
Apparently, reports of the reflation meme’s demise were greatly exaggerated. It wasn’t too long ago
That Was “Easily The Most Hawkish” Yellen We’ve Ever Seen
“Yellen’s remarks in Senate testimony were the trigger point for a market that may have been short dollars, a trader in London said, while Amherst Pierpont’s Stephen Stanley described them as ‘easily the most hawkish message’ that she has delivered as Fed chair.”
Algos Go Nuts As Word “Hike” Makes Appearance On Capitol Hill
The machines were ready…
Yellen Yellin’ On Capitol Hill, Dollar Slumps, Toshiba Turmoils, China PPI, German GDP: Enough Said
Ok, so there was actually quite a bit going on overnight, but needless to say,
Stagflation Cometh?
From the very beginning – that is, from the time Trump was elected – there’s
Markets Relieved After Trump/Abe Meeting, Reflation Narrative Intact
Well, it was all aboard the reflation train right out of the gate in early
Chart Check Double Feature (Reflation Nation)
Time and again I’ve emphasized the importance of watching cross-asset correlations and positioning data as
Record Treasury Short Trimmed For Fourth Straight Week, Trump Weighs On Dollar Longs
As you’re probably aware – and if you’re not, you should make yourself aware –
How To Trade Rates In An “Event-Driven” Week
Earlier today I previewed Janet Yellen’s forthcoming Congressional testimony. Needless to say, that will be
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