Did you think the massive short in US Treasurys had been materially trimmed? Did you
Category: 10Y
Don’t Be A “Killjoy”, Richard
“I feel like a bit of a killjoy. I can’t quite bring myself to try to play the hero and call the end of recent moves. But I’m close.”
7 Signs Of The (Market) Apocalypse
“While we’re not (yet!) expecting the equivalent of the fall of the Roman Republic, we are nevertheless very suspicious of the presumption that recent technical strength can continue.”
The Queen Bee Speaks: Full Yellen Summary
“Fed Chair Janet Yellen says an increase in fed funds rate will likely be appropriate at FOMC’s March 14-15 meeting if policy makers determine that employment, inflation continue to evolve in line with expectations.”
One Bank Asks: “Where Have All The Doves Gone”?
One of the things you might have noticed is that the Fed is looking at a
“It’s The Reflation Trade, Baby!” These Are The Levels To Watch On Friday
“If two-year Treasury yields close above 1.3% but 10-year yields linger below 2.5%, then a hike is expected but it’s being perceived as a potential policy mistake. If we close above both levels, it’s the reflation trade, baby.”
“All Eyez On Me”: Yellen, Fischer Are Up To Bat
It kind of feels like everyone is ready to get this week on the books.
“The Data Doesn’t Even Matter”
So just a few minutes ago, I said that “basically, the message is that unless
Get This Through Your Damn ‘Brain’ard
So basically, the message is that unless the S&P were to suddenly collapse, the Fed
With Odds Of March Mushroom Cloud Lower, Time For Trump Economic Team To “Muddy Those Expensive Loafers”
The political scientist in me is a little annoyed with some of the overnight Street
Chaaarge! Global Rally Is Back As Trump Discovers Teleprompter Is His Friend, Fed Speakers Talk Up March
It would be a stretch to say he “did a good job.” It felt like we were watching a man who had been told, in no uncertain terms, that this was most assuredly not the time to play presidential Mad Libs.
No, Janet Yellen Does Not Need To Wait On Donald Trump
Think back to last month. I know that’s really f*cking hard because with Trump in
“Fairly Soon” Means “Fairly Soon”: March Odds Spike On Spate Of Super Aggressive Fedspeak
As you might have noticed, the reflation narrative got a boost after hours when comments from
Behold: The “Trump Trade Fade” In 2 Charts
Suddenly everyone cares about those cross-asset correlations I’ve been harping on since the election. Just
“Steve Bannon Didn’t Get Trump This Far By Not Using The Opposition Against Itself”
Boy, oh boy, Tuesday morning’s missive from former FX trader turned Bloomberg contributor Richard Breslow
“Big League?” Why The Market Is “Less Euphoric” On Tuesday Trump Speech
Tonight’s the night – as they say. Donald Trump will deliver his highly anticipated speech
Markets Frozen As Batsh*t Crazy Trump Speech Awaited
It’s all quiet on the Western and Eastern fronts as the market sits in suspended
This About Covers It: “It’s A Confusing, Annoying, Topsy-Turvy World”
“I understand that it’s frustrating to hate the world and have to watch equities continue higher. But frankly it’s a lesson you should have learned over the last eight years.”
So, You Say You Want To Get Long Treasurys?
So, you say you want to get long Treasurys and/or bunds to take advantage of i) political risk-induced haven flows and/or ii) short covering in the massive spec UST short?
Chart Check (Push, Meet Pull)
What’s driving global yields?
Time To Put On Your Flatteners?
Ok, so this is worth noting. Recent richening in the German front end is alarming
Political Ping Pong, A “Pounding,” And A Market Awaiting Trump
Well, we start in FX land on Monday morning and as has become the norm
“We May Very Well Be Past Peak Optimism”: Here’s What Comes Next
If you really know markets, then you know that last week’s biggest story was plunging
“A Glaring Error Of Omission”
VaR shocks. Taper tantrums. I talk about such things a lot. And with good
Reflation Frustration
This is probably a decent time to start asking yourself if the narrative still makes
“Our Animal Spirits Have Been Shot By Poachers”
“It’s not so much whether the Fed minutes were a damp squib, the media round by the Treasury Secretary was underwhelming or we were once again reminded of European political risk”…
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