10Y dollar

Don’t Be A “Killjoy”, Richard

"I feel like a bit of a killjoy. I can’t quite bring myself to try to play the hero and call the end of recent moves. But I’m close."

Top-calling is all the rage nowadays.

On Friday we got Citi’s Matt King essentially telling you to get the f*ck out of Dodge. And on Sunday we got an updated presentation from Goldman that contained the following table showing pretty much everything is trading in the 80-to-90-something-th percentile relative to 10 years of history:

Well on Monday morning, one former FX trader doesn’t want to be “a killjoy”, but he’s afraid he might soon have no choice.

Via Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow

I feel like a bit of a killjoy. I can’t quite bring myself to try to play the hero and call the end of recent moves. But I’m close. And would certainly advocate concentrating more on my stops than worrying over objectives. They’ll take care of themselves.

  • I realize there was a big element of taking some profit on Friday. Buying risk during the week and letting some go for the weekend, lest something untoward happens, has been a good strategy. And, naturally, there’s was an understandable urge to buy the rumor, sell the fact following Chair Yellen’s speech. But I wasn’t impressed with how things ended last week. I’ll believe that all I’m suffering from is Monday blahs if the latest trends pick-up again, and quickly
  • I’ve been a big believer in the stock market move, because momentum has been so strong and the technicals have refused to suggest they’ve done anything wrong. But other than deregulation and tax cuts, the story has been less than compelling. And I’ve taken comfort for the broader market by keeping close track of the S&P financials index
  • But that index at 420 looks to my naked eye to have the same sort of blow-off top as the SPX has at 2400. Neither has backed off much, but they need to get back through them. Not asking a lot. If this market is still good
  • These indices can correct a long way and still be in an uptrend. I just wouldn’t want to stick around to prove it
  • The Dollar Index is allowed a sloppy Friday. It’s what makes it so lovable. But back below 101 would be a problem. And I want to see it above last week’s high quickly. And EUR/USD to prove it has any appetite to sustain below 1.05
  • Gold had a tough time last week. If global things are good, it needs to get back below $1210
  • I confess to remaining a bond bear, but we’ve seen these prices before. It’s time for a proper assault on the big trend-line or we risk just slopping back into the familiar range
  • Whether it’s European risk, global reflation or the American administration getting its sea legs, there was an awful lot of mission accomplished pronouncements as the March hike was finally priced in. Makes me cautious

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