“The darkest hour is just before dawn”…
Author: therealheisenberg
Performance Anxiety
“If there is such a thing as a ‘Holy Grail’ in the credit market anno 2017 then surely the no-cost decompression trade is it – the trade that performs, if spreads widen, but doesn’t cost a bundle of carry if they don’t.”
Want An Early Warning When The Cycle Turns? Ask Credit, Not Stocks
Stocks will sleep walk right off a cliff…
Yields Spike As 10Y Auction Tails
Well, that escalated quickly…
Shale Is Coming Back, And It’s “Coming Back Strong”
From the time the OPEC production cut deal was agreed I’ve been saying that although
Long Collection Agencies?
“This is an attempt to collect a debt”…
A Subtle Reminder, Attorney General Edition
But what does she know, right?
Hours After Call With Erdogan, Trump Wakes Up, Says Will “Never Have Security” If Judicial Branch Independent
Some friendly advice, from one autocrat to another…
Wall Street Bailout Architect Goes Full Donald Trump, Uses Blog Post To Explain Why Fed Is On Hold
Remember Neel “Crazy Eyez” Kashkari? He was a prominent character in Hank Paulson’s “GE is
Daily Kickstart (Oil Gets “Crude” Awakening, RBI Shocks Markets)
We start this morning not with FX but with crude. By now it’s no secret
Key Calls (Wednesday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
“Caution Now Warranted”: One Bank Rethinks The Long Dollar Trade
The “most crowded trade of 2017” has had a rough go of it this year,
Is The Cycle Turning? One Bank Says Not Yet
I’ve talked a ton about the credit cycle and, more specifically, about why there’s likely
Have Fun Being Your Own Weatherman: The Argument For Not Firing Wall Street
As investors, all of the above leads to one burning question: in the age of the internet where anyone can do their own research and disseminate it widely, do we still need sellside research given what we know about the penchant for sellsiders to be, well, offsides? My contention is “yes.”
Subprime Auto Loans Might Be Ok Because After All, People Need Their Cars
“The stronger performance of auto loans partly reflects the fact that the loans are collateralized, and also likely reflects the fact that many US borrowers prioritize auto debt in their payment sequencing.”
Chart Check (Super Awesome Cross-Asset Correlation Monitor Edition)
I’ve talked a ton about cross-asset correlations here and elsewhere over the past few months.
Trump Wakes Up, Calls Everyone “Haters”, Reminds Us He Doesn’t Know Putin, Goes Back To Sleep
Good morning, this is your President and this is my morning rant. First of all,
Daily Kickstart (Chinese FX Reserves Fall Below $3 Trillion, Euro On The Back Foot, Senate Weighs Risk Of School Grizzly Attacks)
The “big” news overnight should have been Chinese FX reserves just like China should be back
Key Calls (Tuesday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
These Days, Everyone Needs To Be A Macro Trader
There’s a lot to grapple with out there and unfortunately for those of you who
What Happens When You Have To Play That Piano Drunk? Or, The Most Absurd Thing I Heard All Day
You’re really good on the piano. I mean, when it comes to the black and
Monday Humor (Trump Banned From UK Parliament)
“Racism” and “sexism” not welcome…
A Little Monday Yen-Sanity Never Hurt Anyone
This is probably worth noting for those of you watching USDJPY (which should be all of you assuming you trade or otherwise care about your investments).
Chart Check (A “Shiny” & “Uncertain” Triple Feature)
“Ok, now let us wave something shiny in front of you monkeys!”
Goldman: Trump Accidentally “Reduces The American Economy’s Speed Limit”
When you go out and you do something that everyone tells you is, if not completely crazy, at least ill-advised, the least you can do is make yourself aware of the likely consequences.
Chart Check (There’s Hope For You Yet)
For anyone still holding out hope that there’s upside for our standard valuation metrics beyond the 100th percentile, there’s always the old corporate buyback bailout…
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