“Given the role and importance of the U.S. in an interconnected global economy, much of the rest of the world — and especially America’s friends and allies — has gone from looking at this situation with curiosity and bemusement to confusion and concern.”
Author: therealheisenberg
‘Game Of Chicken’: Why Do Markets Think They’re So Damn ‘Impervious’?
“If the market is underpricing the uncertainty with respect to the outlook of US monetary policy, we are even more concerned that it seems totally impervious to the risk of two potentially disruptive, if not dangerous, Games of Chicken likely to unfold in the summer and the beginning of the fall.”
‘Does a Canary Chirp If No One’s in the Mine?’
“For now, nothing can go wrong. And if you needed any proof that central bank policy is the ultimate driver of these markets, here you have it.”
 Joe Scarborough: Trump Is Killing The Republican Party
“I did not leave the Republican Party. The Republican Party left its senses.”
Record Complacency Is ‘Reasonable And Could Last A While Yet,’ John And Katherine Imagine
As you get your week started and as you prepare for the ECB to try
Asian Stocks Soar To 9-Year High: ‘The Bar Has Reopened And People Are Getting Drunk’
“It’s like the bar has reopened and people are coming back again for drinks,” BDO’s Jonathan Ravelas added. “There is no threat coming from inflation so the risk of another interest rate hike in the U.S. has diminished significantly.”
Chinese Small Caps Plunge – The Writing Was On The Wall Last Week, Folks
And remember, “China”, “deleveraging” and “concerns” are not three words you want to hear in the same sentence first thing in the morning…
Key Calls (Monday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
You need an upgrade.
China GDP, Econ Beat Across The Board But Stocks Fall Hard At The Open
CHINA 2Q GDP GROWS 6.9% Y/Y; EST. 6.8%
CHINA 2Q GDP GROWS 1.7% Q/Q; EST. 1.7%
CHINA JUNE INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 7.6% Y/Y; EST. 6.5%
CHINA JUNE RETAIL SALES RISE 11.0% Y/Y; EST. 10.6%
‘Billions And Billions And Billions’: ECB, BoJ, And Your Full Week Ahead Preview
If you didn’t get your fill of hand-wringing over DM central banks last week, then you’re in luck…
Video: Fox News Host Shepard Smith Goes Rogue, Blasts Trump For ‘Mind-Boggling Lies’
“Why is it lie after lie after lie?”
(In)stability In One Chart
“Indeed, measures of financial stability look stretched”…
Progressivity Ultimately Comes At Its Own Expense
“In this way, the middle class begins to capture an increasing proportion of the benefits of social spending, leaving less for welfare services targeted exclusively at the poorest.”
‘The Impulses Turn Negative’: Goldman Warns On Emerging Markets
“Hence, despite the very supportive Q1 data, the recent moderation (which affects the data over the next six months) suggests that the impulse to EM growth should switch from a ‘strong positive’ in 1H 2017 to a ‘soft negative’ in 2H 2017.”
Donald Trump The Great Uniter?
“He merely strolled to the lectern, called everybody else a loser, and plowed his way to the presidency on a whim and the most golden of promises — to make America great again.”
‘Swashbuckling’ Pirate: It’s Your Fault That Macro Fund Managers Suck At Their Jobs
“More generally, however, many macro funds aren’t structured to make money by “trading macro.” Investor pressure to deliver steady returns has taken macro traders away from making big-picture bets on economic and policy developments.”
Hypocrisy, Exoneration, And An ‘Unnamed’ Source With My Same Name
If “hypocrisy” works to exonerate people when they’ve done something wrong, then there are a whole lot of small-time drug dealers in jail across this country who would like to understand how it is that a justice system that’s ostensibly concerned with activities that ruin people’s lives somehow managed to collectively avoid putting the entire C-suite at every major bank in prison for a thousand years after the financial crisis.Â
The Politics Of Time
“Money confuses time with itself — money culture recognizes no currency but its own. Waiting is assigned to the poor and powerless so as to ritualistically reinforce social and political demarcation.”
Comey Or Trump: Who Does America Believe? Survey Says…
“Who do you believe is telling the truth about the interactions between President Donald Trump and former FBI Director James Comey?”
A Record Percentage Of BofAML Clients Now Expect A Credit Selloff
Listen, here’s the thing: at some point, credit markets are going to wake up. Now
Asha Rangappa Presents: ‘Trump Jr. And The Curious Case Of The Multiplying Russians’
“There are three rules: (1) no bright light, (2) don’t get him wet, and (3) never feed him after midnight, no matter how much he begs. Bright light hurts him, and sunlight can kill him.”
‘They’re Still Extremely Leveraged’: ‘Crowded Unwind’ By CTAs Could Exacerbate A Rates Selloff
“However, a large beta of CTA returns to the Bloomberg Treasuries Index suggests that CTA positions are still extremely leveraged”…
A Truly ‘Sordid Episode’: Trump And ‘Outrage Overload’
“No. It. Isn’t.”
The ‘Permanent State Of Exception And A New Status Quo’
“With traditional market rules and relationships breaking down, central banks appear to be chasing the illusive target, which means that victory and the final goal are not well defined, which in turn insures the persistence of the “battle†and indefinite continuation of the state of exception.”
Deutsche Bank: ‘The Limit Is Near’
“This episode provides a good example of just how difficult the eventual path to policy normalization is going to be.”
Paul Krugman On The GOP: ‘What Happened To These People?!’
“After all the flag-waving, all the attacks on Democrats’ patriotism, essentially the whole GOP turns out to be OK with the moral equivalent of treason if it benefits their side in domestic politics. Which raises the question: what happened to these people?”
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