Earlier this month, I noted that “Subprime Auto Loans Might Be Ok Because After All,
Author: therealheisenberg
No, Those Fed Minutes Were Not Hawkish
Following the release of the latest Fed Minutes, I was exceedingly amused to watch as seemingly every commentator one cared to (virtually) consult tried to put a hawkish spin on things. That is of course consistent with what Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow described overnight as a “hawkish retelling” of an otherwise dovish statement.
Dear Sterling: It Would Be Best If You Just Accepted Your Fate
Now days, the best way forward for the currency that Deutsche Bank suggested may soon become “irrelevant” may be for lawmakers to simply roll over and choose the path of least resistance.
Confusion In The Air After Fed Minutes
FOMC TO START BALANCE SHEET DEBATE AT UPCOMING MEETINGS
MOST FED OFFICIALS JUDGED GRADUAL RATE HIKE PACE APPROPRIATE
FOMC SEES DOWNSIDE RISK FROM STRONG DOLLAR
A Tragically Terrible Joke
As you may or may not be aware, Saudi Arabia and a Sunni coalition comprising the usual suspects has been at war in Yemen for two years now. “Operation Decisive Storm”, designed to retake the country from the Iran-backed Houthis who quite literally drove Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi into the Gulf of Aden (he fled on a boat), began in March of 2015 and it’s been a sh*t show ever since.
Heisenberg Challenge: Spot The Moment The French Election Changed Course
I said this week would be all about French politics and by God, the market hasn’t disappointed…
Real Life: Goldman Conducts Study Of Trump Tweet Stock Impact
Well, in what can only be described as a sign of the absurd times in which we live, breathe, and trade, Goldman is out on Wednesday with “a study of stock volatility on Trump tweets.”
“Half-Assed” Is The New “Good” (Hedge Fund Edition)
So a couple of days ago in “Good News: Hedge Funds Might Have A Chance
Glass Half-Full Or Half-Empty? Previewing Today’s Big Event
“It’s unclear to me how we get from the dovish statement released three weeks ago to a hawkish retelling of the event. But that’s what seems to be on people’s minds.”
“Le” Screwed: Markets Nervous Ahead Of Fed Minutes As Bookies Put Le Pen’s Chances Even With Rivals
“Good morning.” And also: “I told you so.” This whole idea that because Marine Le
Key Calls (Wednesday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
Full-Junk-Bond-Retard: Company Taps Debt Market To Pay $30 Million Golden Parachute
Investors are now so desperate for yield they’re willing to (literally) pay for obscene golden parachutes…
Crazy Vs. Crazy: Are Things Really More “Uncertain” In Europe Than They Are In The US?
How can a market “take into consideration all potential future events”? Obviously it can’t. That’s absurd. That said, stocks should be expected to discount what we might call “known unknowns.” That is, events that we know are likely to cause turbulence but that also admit of some indeterminacy regarding outcomes. Things that would fall into that category include the French elections and US tax reform.
Chart Check (A “Rigged” Market)
“Stronger oil demand to end 2016 helps to accommodate slightly higher US oil supply, but we see downside risk to our WTI forecast of $55/bbl in 2018 if our upside case for US supply growth plays out all else equal.”
Thrilling Video: Chasing The Equity “Bull” Market
This is what happens when you short a raging bull market and have to frantically cover on the way up…
Stocks May Be Asleep, But Credit Is Passed The F*ck Out
Morgan Stanley has been warning about richness in credit for months and I’ve often cited their analysis in my own posts. Indeed I’ve said repeatedly that when it comes to tranquil markets and rampant complacency, there’s no asset class that looks more dangerous than credit.
Chart Check: Politics At Work
This is what happens when political risk trumps economic data…
Former Swedish PM Mocks Trump, Cites “Alternative” Murder Facts
Well, it look like “what happened in Sweden” might well surpass “Frederick Douglass is an example of somebody who’s done an amazing job,” on everyone’s top 10 list of dumb sh*t Donald Trump’s said.
“You’ll Like It Too!” Ireland Now Less Risky Than France
Tired of sticking around in OATs as spreads to bunds balloon and Marine Le Pen’s chances of becoming President tick higher taking us ever closer to a French redenomination event and subsequent €1.7 trillion sovereign default?
One Trader Doesn’t Get Why You’re So Damn “Punchy” This Morning
” The rest must have done some people good, because the feel of the market is a bit punchy as we start out of the gate. I’ve no strong explanation why”…
Dollar On A Harker High, European Economy Hums Despite Political Turmoil, Kuroda Continues To Confuse
Well, that escalated quickly. It wasn’t hard to predict what would set the tone overnight.
Key Calls (Tuesday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
An ETF Disaster Waiting To Happen
I’m a broken record on a whole lot of things and corporate bond market liquidity
“Dude, Stock Market Selloffs Are Rare!” – No, They’re Not
“Large equity drawdowns are more common than you might think”…
Guy Who ‘Isn’t A War Hero’ Is Really Pissed Off At Donald Trump
“They would be alarmed by the hardening resentment we see toward immigrants, and refugees, and minority groups, especially Muslims. They would be alarmed by the growing inability, and even unwillingness, to separate truth from lies.”
A Billion Barrel Bet
You know, sometimes you just have to laugh. Or shake your head. Or, my personal favorite, pull a Captain Picard…
Chart Check (“This Should Be Fine”)
Compare and contrast…
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