When it comes to industrial policy, no one does it quite like the Chinese. That’s
Author: therealheisenberg
The Skipper, The Oil And The Prize-Winner
Dave Chappelle once called Donald Trump an “honest liar,” which struck me as an apt
So… Oracle
Oracle’s the poster child for the market’s AI capex concerns, and also for investors’ growing
US Jobless Claims Soar As Turkey Distortion Disappears
The holiday-impacted plunge in initial US jobless claims was an anomaly. Who could’ve known? Last
Trump Goes Fishing, Scores ‘Largest Oil Tanker Ever Seized’
Maybe Pete Hegseth’s a war criminal, maybe he isn’t, but Donald Trump’s definitely a pirate.
Walking And Chewing Gum
The policy rate’s in the neighborhood of neutral and having delivered 75bps of cuts since
Flying Blind Behind Lame Duck, Divided Fed Braves Hawkish Cut
A Fed flying partially blind due to delays in the publication of key government data
China Discovers Cure For Deflation: Gold
I noticed people have given up trying to pretend China’s not shin-deep in a disinflationary
DeepSeek Has Blackwell
China doesn’t need to participate in Donald Trump’s pay-to-play deal with Nvidia, apparently. Hot on the
‘The Hassett Premium’
One consequence of a Kevin Hassett Fed is likely to be increased market concern around
Trump Says Lowering Rates Is ‘Litmus Test’ For New Fed Chair
Donald Trump wants the Fed to keep cutting rates. Did he mention that? Because if
More Layoffs, Fewer Quits Add To Evidence Of Labor Market Cracks
There were 7.67 million job openings across the US economy on the last business day
US Hiring Registers A Pulse, Small Business Worry Grows
Good news: The trend in US private sector hiring improved late last month. That was
Nvidia’s New Pay-To-Play
If I were the Party in Beijing, I’m not sure how I’d approach Donald Trump’s
Maybe Trump Does Have A Macro Plan For 2026
Over the weekend, in “Dead End,” I suggested The White House has no real plan
Middle-Class Should Do Well In 2026. The Poor, Not So Much
Good news for the middle-class in America. Statements like that should always be accompanied by
Trillion-Dollar Man
China’s export machine rumbled back last month after sputtering in October, a relief for an
Year-End Stock Rally Has Green Light, Popular Strategist Says
The back half of December should be strong for US equities. Note the emphasis. A
Trump’s Plan B For Controlling The FOMC
March 1. That’s the deadline for confirming regional Fed presidents, and it matters because the
What To Expect From 2025’s Final FOMC Meeting
A rate cut. That’s what to expect. Spoiler alert, I know. The Fed will deliver
Weekly: Dead End
During his first and, mercifully for Republicans, only, debate with Kamala Harris, Donald Trump famously
Feel The Burns
Soon enough, Donald Trump will announce Jerome Powell’s successor. That person — probably Kevin Hassett
‘Relatively Dismal’: Another Month, Another Record Mood Low
Could’ve been worse? That’s a question. I’m not sure of the answer. The preliminary read
The BEA’s Open!
The BEA’s open. Hooray! After a lengthy blackout brought on by the longest US government
The 2020s In One Chart
You’ve heard it again and again. More times, probably, than you care to by now:
JPMorgan Sees Path To S&P 8,000 On ‘FOBO’
Were you curious as to what America’s largest bank expects for US equities in 2026?
Melting Jobs Market Mocks Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ Narrative
How seriously should we take alternative measures of the world’s most important macro readout? That
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