Rate cuts are coming soon to the allegedly over-budget construction site that is the Marriner
Author: therealheisenberg
Classic Boiling Frog
Unless Howard Lutnick intervenes to say otherwise, the BEA will probably tell Americans what they
The 800-Pound Gorilla
Ignoring the 800-pound gorilla won’t make him disappear. To let the financial media and the
Powell Holds Firm, But Nods To September Rate Cut
As expected, Jerome Powell opened the door to a rate cut at the September FOMC
Bury My FAIT At Jackson Hole
The last time the Fed reviewed its policymaking framework, they adopted a strategy which explicitly
FHFA As Trump’s Personal Prosecutor
“[A]n ominous turn in political lawfare.” That’s how The Wall Street Journal described what’s going
Resale Housing Market Celebrates ‘Ever-So-Slight’ Improvement
Congratulations are in order. The perpetually beleaguered resale US housing market managed to show a
US PMIs Suggest Fed Should Be Hiking, Not Cutting
Well, good news and bad news from the preliminary read on services and manufacturing activity
US Jobless Claims Jump To Multi-Week High
For the recession spotters out there, US jobless claims rose the most since May in
Fed Still Saw Inflation As Biggest Risk, Minutes Show
When they’re not mismanaging asbestos removal projects and committing mortgage fraud (if you can’t detect
Trump Moves To Oust Another Fed Board Member
I’ve said it over and over again since Donald Trump’s autocratic inclinations became clear a
US Home Prices Are Falling As Buyers Go Missing
Don’t look now, but US home prices — the bane of every American renter’s existence,
The Problem With Scott Bessent’s Neutral Math
A lot of times — too often — we take what ostensibly smart people have
Distant Thunder
In a Tuesday article for The New York Times, Lydia DePillis described the US macro
No Traction In US Single-Family Home-Building
New construction activity picked up in July from June, the second of this week’s US
Cost Of Mag7 AI Dream Spirals Toward $1 Trillion
Let’s talk about capex. Again. Because that’s entertaining, right? Don’t tell me you didn’t wake
How Realistic Are Wall Street’s 2026 S&P Margin Forecasts?
If I told you corporate profit margins were likely to hold up better than feared
Catch Me If You Can
Remember the S&P 493 “catch up” thesis? If not, don’t worry, it’s simple. It said
US Homebuilders Deeply Depressed As Incentive Use Soars
Homebuilder sentiment in the US is stuck in the dumps. Sorry. Let me rephrase. Builder
The ‘Best’ Earnings Season Ever
It’s official. With earnings season all but over in the US, Q2 was the best
When You’re In A Hole
It’s Jackson Hole week. Write your own jokes. There are plenty. Almost all of them
Inflation Up, Rates… Down?
On balance, professional investors expect inflation to move higher around the world over the next
Baked Alaska
A couple of days ago, in the short editorial accompanying the evening mailer, I reiterated
YCC: Coming Soon To The Fed?
If you had any doubts as to what Donald Trump wants in a Fed Chair,
Ice Kingdom
China’s suffering from mild deflation, but considering the challenging circumstances, the world’s second-largest economy held
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