How is this cycle different? Let me count the ways. On second thought, let me
Author: therealheisenberg
War And Recession. What Else?
If you’re a thrill seeker, “CPI eve” sessions in the pandemic era can be tedious
Small Businesses Offer More Cautious Evidence Of Disinflation
If it’s more incremental, under-the-radar evidence to support the disinflation narrative you’re after, the latest
JPMorgan ‘Firmly Negative’ On Stocks Amid ‘Full-Swing FOMO’
“We retain a firmly negative stance in equities.” So said JPMorgan analysts led by Marko
Does Xi Still Know What He’s Doing?
Sad pictures of unfinished residential buildings. Cranes. Stock photos of the PBoC. Statistics on local
Is The US Consumer Finally Exhausted?
Americans are dialing back on borrowing in the face of economic uncertainty and higher financing
A Very ‘Significant Development’
Last week, in “Too Hot,” I insisted on the idea that the trek higher for
Inflation Headaches
There’s something about the NY Fed consumer survey that gives me a headache. Not literally.
Big Drop In Used Car Prices Helps Disinflation Stars Align
There was more incrementally good news on the inflation front Monday in the US, when
Liquidity And One Great Narrative
2023’s US equity rally is all about two things (and they aren’t mutually exclusive): The
Mike Wilson Asks: ‘Do Earnings Matter?’
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson has a question. Maybe you can answer it. “Do earnings matter?”
Local Protection Racket Struggles To Ward Off Deflation
Xi Jinping may be done bleeding China’s largest tech firms (for now), but a purported
Huge Disparity Opens Between Year-End Stock Forecasts
Some readers are probably tired, by now, of hearing me insist on the futility of
Slowly But Surely?
Data due this week will show core inflation in the US ran at two and
As Bad As It Gets? What To Expect From Earnings Season
Reporting season is upon us in the US and according to consensus, Q2 was the
Rapprochement Or Platitudes?
Not surprisingly, Janet Yellen’s high-profile trip to Beijing was long on nebulous soundbites and short
As ChatGPT Traffic Falls, A.I. ‘Baby Bubble’ Gets First Test
The “novelty wore off.” That’s how Similarweb described the first drop in global traffic to
Albert Edwards ‘Not Wavering Now’ On Recession Call
The problem with being “early” on recession calls (the same goes for forecasting equity selloffs)
US Equity Funds Get Second-Biggest Inflow Of 2023 As H2 Dawns
After two weeks of withdrawals, money flowed back into US stock-focused ETFs and mutual funds,
Job Gains Cool, Wage Growth Sticky In Mixed Read On Labor Market
The US economy added 209,000 jobs in June, according to the government’s tally released on
Markets May Face Tougher Inflation Fight, New Rate Shock In Q3
One impetus for this year’s equity gains is obviously falling headline inflation, and not just
Money Fund Assets Surge To New Record
Money market funds snapped a three-week streak of outflows with an emphatic, $43.7 billion haul
The ‘Perils Of Euphoric Expectations’
The biggest complaint I have with the A.I. “bubble” narrative is also the simplest: The
Blistering ADP Report Prints Half A Million
Private sector US employers added nearly half a million new jobs last month, data released
Quits Jump Back Above 4 Million, Underscoring Distorted US Labor Market
There were 9.82 million open jobs across the world’s largest economy on the last business
Mighty US Services Sector Steams Along
American manufacturing may be mired in a downturn, but the mighty US services sector most
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