The financial media was awash on Thursday with coverage of Instagram’s Twitter competitor “Threads,” but
Author: therealheisenberg
US Job Cuts Slow Sharply
The pace of US job cuts moderated in June, even as the running total for
Irrational Rationality
It’s tempting to go ahead and call it: The second half of 2023 surely won’t
A Resolute Fed Looks To Labor Market For Inflation Relief
The June FOMC minutes suggested Fed officials aren’t satisfied that US inflation is on a
How Expensive Are US Stocks?
How expensive are US equities? That’s a bit of a clichéd question, admittedly. It’s made
Bears Bearing Bear Cases
Playing catch-up to an equity market that’s running away from you can end poorly. With
As Chinese Economy Falters, Xi Pitches ‘Pie Of Win-Win Cooperation’
The Chinese recovery narrative, easily among the worst macro calls of 2023 so far, was
Cold War Temperature Dialed Up Ahead Of Yellen’s Beijing Visit
Stay out of our clouds. (There’s a balloon joke there.) The Biden administration is poised
The Flows Backdrop For The Great Bond Debate
On Tuesday morning, I walked through the “debate” between Bill Dudley and Morgan Stanley’s US
The Bill Dudley, Morgan Stanley Treasury Row
Last year was bad for bonds. In fact, we can call 2022 anomalously poor. If
Cognac And Shelter Inflation
The Fed is counting on a decline in US shelter inflation. If that doesn’t pan
‘Investors’
“Investors,” we were told Monday, are curbing their outlook for equities following an “unexpectedly” buoyant
All Tech? Sure. All A.I.? Perhaps Not.
The concentrated market narrative continues to resonate. Although I’ve endeavored to emphasize that a narrow
Doing All Right. Maybe.
The marquee gauge of US factory activity missed estimates in data released Monday, but underlying
How Much Did The Machines Buy?
How important were systematics in perpetuating and sustaining the equity rally during the second quarter?
2023 In 500 Words
Many investors (I dare say a preponderance or at least a plurality assuming the existence
Jobs And Fireworks
It’s a holiday week in the US, but it’s also jobs week. So, anyone who
Xi Shuffles PBoC Functionaries As Yuan Slides, Stocks Struggle
Yi Gang is a lame duck. China this weekend named SAFE frontman and “three red
Fear The Narrow Tech Bull?
We tend to get bent out of shape and otherwise pretend it’s an affront to
Holistic People
“Mornin’ sunshine.” She smirked. I picked her up at the Starbucks attached to the Tuckahoe
What Worked In The First Half (Almost Everything)
2023 is halfway over. Time flies, unfortunately. Just yesterday I was a day younger. It
The Supreme Court’s Student Debt Decision In Context
A year after overturning Roe and a day after restricting affirmative action, a half-dozen robed
The Macro Implications Of The Student Loan Decision
If you’re wondering what the Supreme Court’s decision to nix Joe Biden’s student debt relief
Fed Gets Good News In Critical Spending, Inflation Update
Markets and policymakers were handed what looked, on the surface anyway, like a Goldilocks US
US Stock Funds See More Outflows As Sugar High Wanes
In another testament to the notion that some of the thrill is gone for US
Bad Optics: Core, Services Inflation Rise In Europe As ECB Leans In
Headline European inflation receded in June to the slowest 12-month pace since January of 2022,
Money Market Outflows Slow. Fed Bank Backstop Usage Hits Another Record
Money market funds saw outflows for a third consecutive week, but the pace slowed. Nearly
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