“Ignore the signal at your own risk.” That was the stark warning from Cam Harvey,
Author: therealheisenberg
Will The Fed Tacitly Adopt A Higher Inflation Target?
There’s a suspicion in some corners that the Fed, for all its bluster about being
Stocks Enjoy Largest Inflows In 18 Months. But There’s A Caveat…
On Friday, a trader told one financial media outlet that the bull case for equities
American Consumers Look Beyond Gas Prices, Expect Cooler Inflation
“Divergent movements” on subindexes and across demographic cohorts left the headline University of Michigan sentiment
Lies, Damned Lies And The Statistics Bureau
Xi Jinping is limiting access to sensitive economic data, read one of two summary bullet
Money Market Fund AUM Scales Yet Another New Peak
Another week, another new record for money market fund assets. Money funds took in nearly
Calm With A Chance Of Fireworks
Time and again over the past several months, I’ve revisited the post-SVB vol crunch. This
Exiles On Main Street, Redux
The word “macroeconomics” doesn’t exactly get the blood boiling, and neither, really, do ostensibly exciting
US Economy Impolitely Refuses To Die
Thursday’s key macro data out of the US reinforced the message from Wednesday’s CPI report:
ECB Braves One Final Hike As Forecasts Show Rising Stagflation Risk
The ECB on Thursday raised rates for a 10th time, in what was likely the
China Delivers RRR Cut In Latest Bid To Resuscitate Economy
“The economy continues to recover and its internal driver keeps strengthening.” That’s according to the
A Word On Bear Steepening
You wouldn’t know it if your only frame of reference is the post-Lehman world, but
‘What Could Go Wrong?’ Charts
It’s a long story, but I have a deeply ingrained aversion to what I call
SocGen Sees S&P Returning To Highs, Then Falling Sharply
If you ask SocGen’s Manish Kabra, US stocks may fall 15-20%. But not until they
Stocks Struggling With Rising Yields, Good News Is Bad News: Goldman
Goldman’s not bearish, but they aren’t bullish either. The bank remains risk neutral, according to
Warm CPI Report Suggests Fed’s Job Not Quite Done
Core inflation in the US was a little warm last month, hotly-anticipated data released on
Crab Dumplings
Kim Jong-Un and Vladimir Putin wandered around a spaceport in the middle of Russia’s Far-East
Gamma Gravity
If it feels to you like US equities are having a tough time realizing that
US Squanders Historic Opportunity, Lets Child Poverty Soar
We learned a lot from the pandemic. For example, we were reminded that for all
Underperforming Cash, ‘Splattered’ Vol
Fed hikes made cash great again. (Please don’t send me any novelty red hats.) From
Regular People Struggle, Homeowners Included
Last year, Jerome Powell referred to “regular economic people” while editorializing around the plight of
What’s Really Important On Apple Launch Day
Tuesday was a product launch day for Apple. In the normal course of business, I
Americans May Keep Spending In 2024
By now, you know the bear case for consumer spending in the US. Anyone with
Credit, Job Loss Perceptions Worsen As Fed Medicine Takes Toll
The rate hikes are working. Or at least that was one interpretation of the key
Rising Rates Amplify Equity Market’s Haves, Have-Nots Divide
We might’ve entered dead horse-beating territory by now when it comes to documenting the disparity
China, Japan Shout Loudly At Plunging Currencies
Last week, I said the dollar “wrecking ball” was back. From a kind of “feel
Chinese Credit Impulse Shows Signs Of Life
Monday was a good news day for the Chinese economy. Those are rare in 2023,
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