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Author: therealheisenberg

Warm US Jobs Report Leaves Macro Narrative Mostly Intact

December 8, 2023December 13, 2023

The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, Friday’s hotly-anticipated government release showed. That was

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2 Comments on Warm US Jobs Report Leaves Macro Narrative Mostly Intact

Hartnett Spots Animal Spirits As Sentiment Gauge Jumps Most Since 2012

December 8, 2023December 9, 2023

The animal spirits are stirring. That’s according to BofA’s Michael Hartnett who, in the latest

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Money Market Fund AUM Swells Further. RRP In Focus

December 7, 2023

Money market fund assets ballooned by another $61.7 billion over the latest reporting period, data

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1 Comment on Money Market Fund AUM Swells Further. RRP In Focus

Kolanovic Sees ‘Worry Or Perhaps Even Panic’ In 2024

December 7, 2023December 13, 2023

“We think that the decline in inflation and economic activity that we forecast for 2024

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5 Comments on Kolanovic Sees ‘Worry Or Perhaps Even Panic’ In 2024

McElligott On 2024’s ‘Big Macro Mystery’

December 7, 2023December 8, 2023

There’s a “big mystery” about 2024. It’s related to the “one question” I posed previously

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12 Comments on McElligott On 2024’s ‘Big Macro Mystery’

Bank Of Japan Speculation Reaches Fever Pitch

December 7, 2023December 8, 2023

There’s something amusing about employing the term “early” to describe a prospective Bank of Japan

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Claims And Cuts

December 7, 2023December 8, 2023

For the better part of two months, recurring jobless claims in the US served as

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Market Fears Melt-Up More Than Selloff

December 6, 2023

Despite the ongoing rally at the long-end of the Treasury curve (which was risk asset

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‘Tectonic’ CTA Shift Drove Rates Reversal, Bond Rally

December 6, 2023December 6, 2023

Two months ago, the US long-end couldn’t sustain a bid to save its life and

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4 Comments on ‘Tectonic’ CTA Shift Drove Rates Reversal, Bond Rally

Populist Wave Claims Last ‘Young Gun’ As McCarthy Quits Congress

December 6, 2023December 7, 2023

“My work is only getting started,” Kevin McCarthy said Wednesday, in a Wall Street Journal

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4 Comments on Populist Wave Claims Last ‘Young Gun’ As McCarthy Quits Congress

Italy Says Addio To Xi’s Belt And Road

December 6, 2023December 7, 2023

G7 or Belt and Road. That was the choice for Italy. When push came to

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A Hill To Die On

December 6, 2023March 4, 2024

There’s no connection between the conflict in Ukraine and America’s southern border. Either it’s in

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6 Comments on A Hill To Die On

US Private Hiring Cools, Wage Growth Slows

December 6, 2023December 7, 2023

Private sector employers in the US added 103,000 jobs in November, ADP said Wednesday. That

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1 Comment on US Private Hiring Cools, Wage Growth Slows

With Apologies

December 5, 2023December 6, 2023

Part of writing about macro and markets in the post-Lehman world is coping with the

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9 Comments on With Apologies

Immaculate Disinflation Lives In Favorable JOLTS

December 5, 2023December 13, 2023

There were more than half a million fewer US job openings on the final business

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10 Comments on Immaculate Disinflation Lives In Favorable JOLTS

Resilient Goldilocks Meme Bedevils Pessimists

December 5, 2023December 6, 2023

If job openings overshot in this week’s closely-watched JOLTS report, an upbeat read on services

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1 Comment on Resilient Goldilocks Meme Bedevils Pessimists

‘Tactical Specialist’ Says Rally Drivers ‘Absolutely Out Of Gas’

December 5, 2023December 5, 2023

I spent a lot of time last week discussing the flow drivers behind November’s historic

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3 Comments on ‘Tactical Specialist’ Says Rally Drivers ‘Absolutely Out Of Gas’

US And China Find Common Ground. In A Moody’s Outlook Cut

December 5, 2023December 6, 2023

Beijing is “disappointed.” With a lot of things and also with a lot of people,

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1 Comment on US And China Find Common Ground. In A Moody’s Outlook Cut

Perfect Storm, Imperfect Union

December 4, 2023December 30, 2024

“I think that over the past few years, Americans have been feeling increasingly insecure about

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10 Comments on Perfect Storm, Imperfect Union

SOFR Spike: What To Know

December 4, 2023December 5, 2023

A SOFR spike! Who’s excited?! I don’t know how much attention this’ll garner among casual

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1 Comment on SOFR Spike: What To Know

‘No Meaningful Conviction’

December 4, 2023December 5, 2023

Market observers employed hopelessly outdated colloquialisms to describe subdued sentiment at the beginning of the

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6 Comments on ‘No Meaningful Conviction’

Stocks’ Fate Seen Hinging On Cycle Runway

December 4, 2023December 4, 2023

US rates bear flattened ahead of this week’s key macro data, perhaps not surprising on

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Rate Cuts And Profit Growth? History Says No

December 4, 2023December 5, 2023

“From where we are sitting, the market remains clueless about where 10-year bond yields or

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8 Comments on Rate Cuts And Profit Growth? History Says No

I’m Sorry, Wilson!

December 4, 2023December 5, 2023

“I’m sorry, Wilson!” (Who’s seen Cast Away?) If you’re looking to trade the early-year bullish

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3 Comments on I’m Sorry, Wilson!

Are Stocks Too Calm For Comfort?

December 3, 2023December 4, 2023

“It’s quiet. Too quiet,” as the old cliché goes. As the new week dawned, some

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2 Comments on Are Stocks Too Calm For Comfort?

US Jobs Report Takes Center Stage As Fed Goes Quiet

December 3, 2023December 4, 2023

A raft of top-tier US economic data due this week will help traders refine Fed

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Record Highs Or Santa Crash? Wall Street Looks Ahead After Historic Rally

December 2, 2023March 4, 2024

It’s rational to ask if asset prices are destined to buckle under the weight of

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2 Comments on Record Highs Or Santa Crash? Wall Street Looks Ahead After Historic Rally

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