“Is the big surprise for 2024 going to be a cyclical deflationary bust?” Readers can
Author: therealheisenberg
For Bears, Another Frustrating Turn
It’s been a frustrating year for equity bears. The earnings recession was supposed to be
Treasury Rally Survives Week’s Key Event Risk
All eyes were on bonds this week following the sharp rally which turned November’s first
How Much ‘Extra’ Cash Is Left Out There?
How much “extra” cash is out there? That question is a fixture of the post-pandemic
Dicey Oil Eyed As Demand Canary
Things were looking dicey for crude mid-week. I mentioned previously that the “powder keg” premium
Mortgage Rates Plunge. Share Of Homes With Price Drop Hits Record
Fed officials, including Jerome Powell at last week’s post-FOMC press conference, have repeatedly cited elevated
Rally Risks
“The stocks” are probably due for a breather. US shares came into Jerome Powell’s speaking
The ‘Golden Path’
Fed officials trafficked in colorful language on Tuesday while describing recent events and opining on
Into And Out Of The New ‘Everything Rally’
On the heels of an exceedingly unfortunate three months during which both equities and bonds
CTAs ‘Poleaxed’ In Rates Rally, But Big Short Cover Still Distant Prospect
Those of you old enough to remember March may recall that the fireworks surrounding SVB’s
It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over
I hope we’re not all supposed to get upset every time a central banker expresses
‘The Day After’
Indefinitely. If you’re wondering how long Israel plans to administer martial law in Gaza once
Powder Keg Premium Disappears From Crude
Oil managed to find its footing at the beginning of the week amid escalating turmoil
Inconvenient Facts
Antony Blinken wrapped up a hectic tour of the Mideast on Monday with a stop
Key Fed Survey Suggests Marginal Improvement In Credit Conditions
Market interest in the latest vintage of the Fed’s senior loan officer opinion survey was
Kolanovic: ‘Bad News Is Good News’ Zone May Be Quite Narrow
“The ‘bad news is good news’ zone may be quite narrow,” JPMorgan analysts led by
US Small-Caps Celebrate Miserable Milestone In Never-Ending Selloff
Small-caps outperformed during last week’s raucous US equity rally, but that’s where the good news
Mike Wilson Not Impressed By Stock Rally
Equities will have to try a little harder (and probably a lot harder) if they
Goldman Called The Bond Rally. Here’s What The Bank Says Now
There’s room for US Treasury yields to fall further, but the floor’s higher now than
Can The ‘Everything Rally’ Continue? McElligott Weighs In
Stocks are a bit of a sideshow right now. It’s all about bonds. Indeed, equities
All Eyes On Bonds
The data docket is mercifully sparse across the world’s largest economy this week. That’s a
Buffett’s McDuck Vault Now Holds $157 Billion
The Berkshire acolytes will have to forgive me: There’s too much going on in the
Stocks And The 2024 Election: An Early Preview
2024 is an election year is the US. Maybe you’re aware. If this US presidential
Is The Treasury Squeeze Over?
The “everything rally” is back in the US. As discussed at length in the latest
Ghost Town
Downtown is small as cities go. There are no proper skyscrapers, but two respectably large
Did Janet Yellen Just Deliver ‘The First Rate Cut’?
Ahead of this week’s all-important Treasury refunding announcement, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott suggested Janet Yellen might
Doves’ Dreams Come True In October Jobs Report
The US economy added 150,000 jobs in October and hiring was slower than initially reported
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