US Stocks Extend Inflow Streak Amid Dramatic Sentiment Shift

US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds took in more than $8 billion over the latest weekly reporting period.

It was the seventh consecutive weekly inflow and the ninth in 10.

Since the onset of the “everything rally” early last month, US equity funds took in almost $58 billion on net.

To briefly recapitulate, the tide turned decisively for US equity flows in late May, when Nvidia’s “the future is now” moment and, shortly thereafter, the debt ceiling deal, changed the game for sentiment.

Since then, investors have been net buyers, with the latest run of inflows taking the YTD cumulative haul to $63 billion. That figure was negative $68.5 billion on the eve of Nvidia’s Q1 report.

Emerging market funds dominated equity flows for much of 2023, but over the last four weeks it’s been all about the US. Consider: The last four weekly inflows to global equity funds were $2.628 billion, $13.053 billion, $23.473 billion and $8.795 billion. Inflows to US-focused funds were $8.271 billion, $12.358 billion, $25.771 billion and $11.029 billion during those same weeks. So, it’s actually all about the US and then some.

Individual investor sentiment turned even more bullish in the week to November 29. The AAII bull gauge hit 48.8%, among the highest readings of 2023.

As the figure above (updated with this week’s data) makes clear, sentiment has indeed inflected dramatically over the last month.

“The significant inflows into US equities coincide with expectations of a softer Fed stance, further fueled by dovish remarks from Chris Waller,” TD Securities analysts including Chris Whelan said Friday. “In addition, the reduction in the Fed’s RRP and lack of long bond issuance from the US Treasury makes long-duration assets scarce, hence investors seek duration alternatives such as long-term IG, long-term HY and even equities, which adds context to the recent inflow patterns.”


 

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