Despite the ongoing rally at the long-end of the Treasury curve (which was risk asset manna from heaven in November), equities are struggling to build on last month’s monumental rally.

That’s nothing to panic about. “The stocks” can’t rally every day, and besides, there’s plenty of money to be made in Bitcoin while you wait on equities to make a summit push. (I’m just joking. I’m afraid I agree with Jamie Dimon: It’d be better if the government just pulled the plug on crypto.)

Still, there’s some mild consternation regarding equities’ inability to rally alongside bonds this month. “The feedback loop between US rates and stocks has recently broken down,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery remarked. “Gone are the days in which a drop in rates would inspire a stock market rally.”

That’s probably a little too strong. If those days are indeed “gone” they only ended last week. I think it’s too early to make definitive statements, but there’s something to be said for the notion that bad macro news (in this case mounting evidence of a softer US labor market) could soon become a source of concern for stocks rather than a boon. Between that and the idea that the flow drivers behind last month’s “everything rally” may be largely exhausted, some worry the run-up in stocks and the accompanying collapse in vol set the stage for a selloff later this month.

Nomura’s Charlie McElligott isn’t so sure. On Wednesday, he reiterated his contention that the setup just isn’t there for a big drawdown absent some manner of exogenous shock.

“It still seems to me [that] the conditions aren’t there for any sort of equities crash risk because we just aren’t seeing funds long enough the market yet,” Charlie said. “Its only when funds are ‘brick long'” that they’re compelled to hedge, “which then puts dealers into a short gamma / short vega position into a spot-down market. Only then can the games can begin.”

There’s no demand for downside. But look at upside protection (in green, above). That’s bid. And that’s a hedge not against a selloff, but against a melt-up.

Those skew percentiles aren’t indicative of a market where everyone has a lot of exposure on. In fact, they’re indicative of the opposite.

McElligott described hedge fund nets as middling even as they’re (amusingly in the context of recent events) higher than CTA nets. And while vol control exposure looks high on a near-term window, it’s only 50%ile on a 10-year lookback.

So, what’s the takeaway? Well, probably just that if it’s a crash-down you’re looking for, you might have to endure a crash-up first. “Perhaps it will require another January/February chase-y ‘spot up, vol up’ start to the year [to] set the table for a bigger down-trade into a hypothetical economic/credit cycle turn in the second half,” McElligott said.