‘Tactical Specialist’ Says Rally Drivers ‘Absolutely Out Of Gas’

I spent a lot of time last week discussing the flow drivers behind November’s historic cross-asset bonanza.

Suffice to say CTAs and vol control played starring roles. The managed futures space mirrored the macro-policy reversal as legacy positions in hawkish rates bets and bond shorts were a “one-way buy-to-cover” (as one popular derivatives strategist put it), while a veritable collapse in realized equity vol triggered mechanical stock-buying from the vol control universe.

According to Goldman’s Scott Rubner (who Bloomberg amusingly described this week as a “tactical specialist”), those dynamics may be largely exhausted.

“The flow-of-funds dynamics that caused the everything rally in November have absolutely run out of gas right now,” Rubner wrote, describing $225 billion in CTA buying over the last month as “the fastest increase in exposure that we have ever seen.”

GS FICC & Equities

Now, CTA asymmetric skew “is firmly to the down side,” Rubner said. On Goldman’s estimates, there’s just $58 billion to buy on a big rally extension, but $210 billion to sell in a drawdown.

How about vol control? Rubner cited the 10-day realized collapse I went on (and on) about last week, on the way to putting vol control exposure in the 95%ile on a five-year lookback.

GS FICC & Equities

Vol control exposure tends to be “escalator up, elevator down,” but you do need some kind of catalyst that gets spot equities moving — something to expand the outcome distribution, which compressed in recent weeks. (The S&P hasn’t had a 1% up or down day since November 14.)

Finally, Rubner noted that index gamma is the longest on record. “This is important,” he said. It’s “helped increase single stock dispersion, as buying somewhere else ‘that can move,’ has created supply in what you own.”


 

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3 thoughts on “‘Tactical Specialist’ Says Rally Drivers ‘Absolutely Out Of Gas’

  1. Thanks for the commentary on this. I was hoping that you would touch on this story this morning.

    I’ve been surprised by the faltering upward momentum in recent days given the almost unanimous expectations of a happy rally into year end and drop in volatility.  

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