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Author: therealheisenberg

Marginally Constructive

May 30, 2024May 31, 2024

US economic growth was slower than initially reported in the first quarter, closely-watched revisions released

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1 Comment on Marginally Constructive

Pending Home Sales Plunge As Buyers Suddenly Balk

May 30, 2024May 31, 2024

Pending home sales in the US plummeted in April, a Thursday update showed. Contract signings

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1 Comment on Pending Home Sales Plunge As Buyers Suddenly Balk

Tariffs, Taxes And Fiscal Policy

May 29, 2024July 4, 2024

I think I’ve made it abundantly clear by now what I think of US election

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6 Comments on Tariffs, Taxes And Fiscal Policy

Reprieve Ends For US Homebuyers As Mortgage Rates Rise

May 29, 2024July 4, 2024

A three-week rate reprieve for aspiring US homeowners just came to an end. After flirting

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1 Comment on Reprieve Ends For US Homebuyers As Mortgage Rates Rise

Wall Street Ignores The Only US Election Risks That Matter

May 29, 2024May 30, 2024

On May 28, Goldman published a note called “The US Election — Debating the Asset

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19 Comments on Wall Street Ignores The Only US Election Risks That Matter

You Got Hammack’d

May 29, 2024May 30, 2024

Listen, I don’t know the first thing about Beth Hammack. No matter how many times

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12 Comments on You Got Hammack’d

Exploiting The Chaos

May 29, 2024June 20, 2024

It’s not easy to get foreign policy right. The world’s a very messy place, after

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8 Comments on Exploiting The Chaos

I Was Told There Would Be Rate Cuts

May 28, 2024May 29, 2024

We’ve come a long way since late November. Six whole months, in fact. Half a

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1 Comment on I Was Told There Would Be Rate Cuts

Xi ‘Arrests’ Already-Jailed Tiananmen Activist

May 28, 2024May 30, 2024

If social media posts “with seditious intent” were grounds for arrest and detention in the

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9 Comments on Xi ‘Arrests’ Already-Jailed Tiananmen Activist

US Property Prices Score More Records On Marquee Index

May 28, 2024May 29, 2024

“Another all-time high.” That was the overarching message from Tuesday’s update on America’s marquee gauge

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13 Comments on US Property Prices Score More Records On Marquee Index

Fed Suggests More Talking To Solve Communication Problem

May 28, 2024May 29, 2024

I regularly lament the Fed’s penchant for over-communication. Every week, market participants are compelled to

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9 Comments on Fed Suggests More Talking To Solve Communication Problem

Cold War Headlines

May 27, 2024May 28, 2024

China’s upset with the West. Or the West is upset with China. Both. It’s both.

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11 Comments on Cold War Headlines

The Tents Are On Fire

May 27, 2024June 20, 2024

Familiar scenes out of Gaza depicted dazed children sorting through blackened detritus and women wailing

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3 Comments on The Tents Are On Fire

Antonyms Of Hope

May 26, 2024May 28, 2024

Of what use is a “binding” order with no mechanism for enforcement? Not much. Such

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3 Comments on Antonyms Of Hope

Hope Seen Floating In Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure

May 26, 2024May 28, 2024

Core price growth on the Fed’s preferred inflation measure probably downshifted to 0.2% last month.

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1 Comment on Hope Seen Floating In Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure

Did Yellen and Powell Forget Piketty?

May 25, 2024May 27, 2024

When it comes to the notion that Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell engaged in a

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10 Comments on Did Yellen and Powell Forget Piketty?

Inconclusive

May 24, 2024June 20, 2024

I doubt anyone came away from this week wiser. By Friday afternoon in the US,

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2 Comments on Inconclusive

Goldman Gives Up On July Fed Cut

May 24, 2024July 4, 2024

Goldman’s seen enough. On Friday, David Mericle threw in the towel on the bank’s call

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5 Comments on Goldman Gives Up On July Fed Cut

Revisions To Marquee Sentiment Survey Offer Glimmer Of Hope

May 24, 2024May 26, 2024

At least it wasn’t revised lower. The final read on University of Michigan sentiment for

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Leave a Comment on Revisions To Marquee Sentiment Survey Offer Glimmer Of Hope

Rally Interrupted And The Forever Inversion

May 24, 2024May 26, 2024

A four-week global equity rally faltered this week amid concerns around delayed Fed cuts. MSCI’s

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5 Comments on Rally Interrupted And The Forever Inversion

Money Market Fund Assets Climb Fifth Week, Nearing Record

May 23, 2024May 23, 2024

Money market funds took in more than $17 billion in the week to May 22,

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Leave a Comment on Money Market Fund Assets Climb Fifth Week, Nearing Record

Don’t Blame Nvidia

May 23, 2024May 24, 2024

“It’s the economy, stupid.” If you’re determined to explain why US equities didn’t revel in

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2 Comments on Don’t Blame Nvidia

Smotrich Versus Yellen

May 23, 2024May 26, 2024

This is all “very simple,” but — wouldn’t you know it! — a lot of

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12 Comments on Smotrich Versus Yellen

New US Home Sales Fall, Prices Jump In Heavily-Revised Data

May 23, 2024May 24, 2024

New US home sales fell twice as much as expected in April, data released on

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5 Comments on New US Home Sales Fall, Prices Jump In Heavily-Revised Data

Fed’s Inflation Goal ‘Elusive’ As US Economy Picks Back Up

May 23, 2024May 24, 2024

So much for the slowdown. Business activity in the US picked up markedly in May,

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1 Comment on Fed’s Inflation Goal ‘Elusive’ As US Economy Picks Back Up

Nvidia Rides ‘Next Industrial Revolution’ To Another Big Beat

May 22, 2024June 20, 2024

A year on from what history may remember as an epoch-making earnings report, the most

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4 Comments on Nvidia Rides ‘Next Industrial Revolution’ To Another Big Beat

Hawks Fly In Fed Minutes

May 22, 2024

If the question’s how best to read the May FOMC minutes, the answer’s that it’s

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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