It’s jobs week in America, where employers probably added more than 60,000 positions on net last month despite pervasive uncertainty around the war in the Mideast.

That’s roughly the headline number economists expect from the BLS on May 8, when the world’s preeminent statistical agency will release the latest edition of its monthly, seasonally-adjusted, model-based extrapolated sample.

A consensus read on the headline NFP print would mark a pretty sharp deceleration from March when, according to the first estimate anyway, employers added the most jobs since 2024, which is to say the most of Donald Trump’s second term.

Hiring’s been erratic under Trump this go-round — a mercurial labor market for a capricious commander-in-chief.

But there’s a prevailing sense — and this could seem hopelessly naive in hindsight, but you can say that about a whole lot of things — that the worst is over.

Recall that ADP’s high-frequency tally of weekly average private-sector hiring’s been robust of late.

In the four weeks to April 11, the latest period for which the series is available, the private sector added an average of 39,250 jobs a week. The updated figure gives you a sense of the momentum.

Recall that initial jobless claims plunged to their lowest levels since 1969 in the week to April 25. The week before, continuing claims fell to a two-year low.

Consensus is looking for 109,000 on the monthly ADP tally for April, due Wednesday. That’d be the best readout since January of 2025.

So far anyway — and I realize this is vexing for those desperate to see Trump get his macro comeuppance for starting a war in the Mideast — there’s scant evidence in the hard data to suggest the conflict’s had any impact on the US economy outside of pushing up gas prices. Even that hasn’t really deterred discretionary spending.

As discussed at some length here over the weekend, the combination of AI capex (bullish for business investment) and the wealth effect from record-high stocks (bullish for personal spending in the upper-half of the “K”) is forestalling any sort of “catch-down” moment for economic aggregates which in most cases bear little resemblance to deeply depressed measures of household sentiment, consumer confidence and homebuilder moods.

Also on deck in the new week, in order of importance: ISM services (seen solidly in expansion at 53.6), the preliminary read on University of Michigan sentiment for May (seen at an abysmal 49.2), JOLTS for March, productivity and ULC estimates for Q1, Challenger job cuts, Scott Bessent’s quarterly refunding announcement and new home sales.